SMM Evening Comments (Jan 22)

SHANGHAI, Jan 22 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals dropped across the board on Tuesday after China on Monday reported its slowest economic growth in almost three decades, last year.

Aluminium and zinc dropped some 1%, copper slid 0.9%, nickel and lead slipped 0.8%, and tin dipped 0.02%.

The ferrous complex, except for hot-rolled coil, traded lower. Coke slumped 1.6%, iron ore fell 1.3%, coking coal sank 1.2%, and rebar slipped 0.4%.

Copper: The SHFE 1903 contract traded under pressure from the daily moving average during the day and extended overnight losses to close the trading day 0.9% lower at 47,530 yuan/mt. Its KDJ lines are poised to shape a cross. The contract is expected to struggle to hold onto 47,500 yuan/mt tonight.

Aluminium: Despite slight gains in earlier trades, the SHFE 1903 contract weakened during the day and ended at 13,395 yuan/mt, down 1% on the trading day. This forced it to give up gains in the previous two trading days. The contract is expected to remain weak tonight.

Zinc: The SHFE 1903 contract fell to an intra-day low of 21,230 yuan/mt, close to the five-day moving average, before it recovered some losses to end at 21,300 yuan/mt, down close to 1% on the day. Its KDJ lines expanded downwards, suggesting limited upward momentum in SHFE zinc. Gains in its LME counterpart during European hours might provide some support to SHFE zinc. The SHFE 1903 contract is likely to trade rangebound above the five-day moving average tonight.

Nickel: As longs cut their positions, the SHFE 1905 contract pared overnight gains to finish the trading day 0.8% lower at 94,040 yuan/mt. Its KDJ lines crossed with a shorter MACD red bar. The contract is expected to hover around 94,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Lead: With declines across nonferrous metals, the SHFE 1903 contract fell past the five- and 20-day moving averages during the day and ended the trading day 0.8% lower at 17,500 yuan/mt. It is expected to test support at the 10-day moving average tonight.

Tin: The SHFE 1905 contract surged to an intra-day high of 149,740 yuan/mt in morning trade before it lost those and overnight gains to close 0.02% lower at 147,930 yuan/mt. Recent losses sent the contract near the five-day moving average. With limited upward momentum, the SHFE 1905 contract is expected to remain rangebound in the near term with support at 147,500 yuan/mt.