Macro Roundup (Jan 21)

SHANGHAI, Jan 21 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected today.

Last weekend

The US dollar registered its first weekly gain since mid-December as US-China trade optimism lifted investor sentiment.

Media reports suggested that both countries mulled concessions ahead of a Washington visit from Chinese Vice Premier Liu He on January 30-31 for talks to resolve the trade standoff between the world's two largest economies.

US President Trump proposed tougher border security and a compromise to reopen the government in a speech on Saturday. But House Majority leader Nancy Pelosi rejected it, calling his plan "unacceptable" and a "non-starter".

Base metals, except for SHFE tin, increased across the board with LME nickel leading the gains and closing nearly 2% higher. LME lead jumped 1.77%, zinc gained 1.69%, copper rose over 1%, aluminium grew nearly 1%, and tin nudged up. SHFE nickel went up some 2%, lead increased 1.89%, aluminium jumped 1.34%, copper gained over 1%, and lead closed 0.4% higher. 

The US industrial production finished the year on a strong note, rising 0.3% in December after a revised 0.4% gain in November, according to data by the Federal Reserve on Friday. The increase compared with an expected gain of 0.2%. 

The Federal Reserve also said Friday that that manufacturing output jumped 1.1% last month, the largest gain since February 2018. Automakers accounted for much of the growth, with a 4.7% jump in production.

Utility output slumped 6.3% amid warmer temperatures in December. Mining output rose 1.5% on increased extraction of oil and natural gas.

The US consumer sentiment plunged in January to the lowest level since President Trump was elected, according to the University of Michigan index released on Friday. The index fell to 90.7 in January from 98.3, with the expectations index dropping especially sharply. 

"The loss was due to a host of issues including the partial government shutdown, the impact of tariffs, instabilities in financial markets, the global slowdown, and the lack of clarity about monetary policies," said Richard Curtin, chief economist for the survey.

Day ahead

Today, China will release data on its December’s retail sales of consumer goods, value-added of industrial output, and gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter of 2018.