SMM Evening Comments (Jan 16)

Published: Jan 16, 2019 18:27
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Jan 16 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals ended in the black on Wednesday after China signalled more stimulus measures on Tuesday. Zinc surged 2.4%, nickel jumped 1.6%, copper climbed 1.1%, aluminium rose 0.9%, lead gained 0.7% and tin advanced 0.5%.

The ferrous complex traded mixed. Coke increased by 1.2%, iron ore popped 0.5% and hot-rolled coil gained 0.4% while coking coal dropped 0.6%. Rebar stayed flat.

Copper: Following a jump in its LME counterpart, the SHFE 1903 contract accelerated gains in the afternoon after hovering in a tight range in the morning. The contract ended the trading day more than 1% higher at 47,380 yuan/mt. This helped it to recover losses from the last three trading days. The contract is expected to try to break through 47,500 yuan/mt tonight.

Aluminium: As shorts took profits, the SHFE 1903 contract extended gains to close the trading day 0.9% higher at 13,400 yuan/mt. This helped it to stand above the five- and 10-day moving averages. The rebound is unlikely to sustain after the market prices in the stimulus signals from the central authorities. 

Zinc: The SHFE 1903 contract shrugged off the resistance at the 60-day moving average during the day and finished the trading day 2.4% higher at 20,860 yuan/mt. Weak consumption by year-end is likely to erode upward momentum in SHFE zinc, which is expected to trade under pressure at the upper Bollinger band tonight.

Nickel: The SHFE 1905 contract extended overnight gains to close the trading day 1.6% higher at 93,230 yuan/mt. Its KDJ lines expanded upwards with an extended MACD red bar. The contract is expected to try to stand firmly above the 60-day moving average tonight.

Lead: Riding on gains across the nonferrous complex, the SHFE 1902 contract jumped past the 10-day moving average in afternoon trades and ended the trading day 0.7% higher at 17,590 yuan/mt. Shorts appeared keen to take profits and the five-day moving average held stable. The contract is likely to trade rangebound at lows in the near term and trade around the 10-day moving average tonight, with support at the five-day moving average.

Tin: The SHFE 1905 contract gave up some gains after hitting the day’s high of 149,170 yuan/mt. It finished the trading day 0.5% higher at 148,790 yuan/mt. Trades were thin today and prices were rangebound.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Economic Improvement of the Boumadine Polymetallic Mine in Morocco
12 hours ago
Economic Improvement of the Boumadine Polymetallic Mine in Morocco
Read More
Economic Improvement of the Boumadine Polymetallic Mine in Morocco
Economic Improvement of the Boumadine Polymetallic Mine in Morocco
12 hours ago
Greenland Mines Completes 104.8-Tonne Bulk Sampling Programme at Skaergaard PGM Project
16 hours ago
Greenland Mines Completes 104.8-Tonne Bulk Sampling Programme at Skaergaard PGM Project
Read More
Greenland Mines Completes 104.8-Tonne Bulk Sampling Programme at Skaergaard PGM Project
Greenland Mines Completes 104.8-Tonne Bulk Sampling Programme at Skaergaard PGM Project
[SMM Flash] Greenland Mines has completed a 104.8-tonne bulk-sampling programme across seven sites at its Skaergaard palladium-platinum-gold project in East Greenland. The samples are being prepared for large-scale and pilot-scale metallurgical testwork at GTK Mintec in Finland, while the company continues engineering, processing, infrastructure and waste-management studies aimed at advancing the project's technical evaluation. Skaergaard's S-K 1300 resource currently comprises approximately 15.0 million oz PdEq Indicated and 17.49 million oz PdEq Inferred, according to Greenland Mines. The bulk-testing programme represents an important step in evaluating processing and recovery options for one of the larger undeveloped palladium-platinum-gold systems outside the major South African, Zimbabwean and Russian supply regions. However, the reported Mineral Resources are not Mineral Reserves and the latest programme does not constitute a development or commercial production decision.
16 hours ago
Two Rivers Advances Validation Work for Merensky Project, Potential Output at 182,000 6E oz/year
16 hours ago
Two Rivers Advances Validation Work for Merensky Project, Potential Output at 182,000 6E oz/year
Read More
Two Rivers Advances Validation Work for Merensky Project, Potential Output at 182,000 6E oz/year
Two Rivers Advances Validation Work for Merensky Project, Potential Output at 182,000 6E oz/year
[SMM Flash] Two Rivers, the South African PGM joint venture between African Rainbow Minerals and Impala Platinum, is advancing technical validation work for its Merensky project on the eastern limb of the Bushveld Complex. Early-works capital was approved during FY2026 to complete studies required to determine the project's way forward. The Merensky concentrator was commissioned during the six months to December 2024 but was subsequently placed on care and maintenance amid challenging PGM market conditions. The project has a stated capital cost of approximately R7.3 billion and is designed to produce around 182,000 6E PGM oz/year at steady state, alongside approximately 1,600 tonnes/year of nickel and 1,300 tonnes/year of copper. A restart could therefore provide meaningful incremental PGM supply from an existing South African operation. However, the project remains under technical validation and no restart date or final decision to resume production has been announced.
16 hours ago
SMM Evening Comments (Jan 16) - Shanghai Metals Market (SMM)