SHANGHAI, Jan 14 (SMM) –

Copper: LME copper failed to receive support after it rebounded from a low of $5,934/mt to above the daily moving average. It ended at $5,957.5/mt after longs pulled it to a high of $5,972.5/mt near closing. The SHFE 1903 contract mostly consolidated around the daily moving average, with the lowest level at 47,000 yuan/mt. The longest government shutdown in US history grew concern across investors, and this depressed copper prices. Today, prices are expected to slow their declines with LME copper trading at $5,940-5,990/mt and the SHFE 1903 contract at 47,000-47,300 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 50-110 yuan/mt today as the delivery day approaches.

Aluminium: LME aluminium came off after it rose to a high of $1,865/mt as shorts entered the market. It ended at $1830.5/mt with open interests up 3,589 lots to 682,000 lots. We retain the view that weak fundamentals will keep prices at lows in the medium term. LME aluminium is likely to trade at $1,805-1,845/mt today. The SHFE 1902 contract also faced pressure from shorts, which dragged it to a low of 13,305 yuan/mt. We expect the contract to trade rangebound at 13,300-13,400 yuan/mt, with deepest spot discounts of 20 yuan/mt. 

Zinc: LME zinc unsuccessfully tested resistance at the 20-day moving average, after it jumped above the five-day moving average. Continued pressure above is likely to see it trading at $2,465-2,515/mt today. A higher LME zinc buoyed the SHFE 1903 contract, which stood firmly above the 10-day moving average and settled at 20,430 yuan/mt. However, sluggish downstream demand and a potential influx of imports are expected to cap any gains in prices. Today, the contract is likely to trade at 20,200-20,600 yuan/mt. 

Nickel: LME nickel broke pressure at the 60-day moving average last Friday night, but resistance at the $11,500/mt level ended it at $11,460/mt. The SHFE 1905 contract received support at the five-day moving average after dipped to a low of 91,400 yuan/mt. It settled at 91,980 yuan/mt with open interests up 9,000 lots to 303,000 lots. Both the contract and LME nickel ended higher even as the US dollar rebounded. Today, we expect the 1905 contract to extend its increase and trade at 91,500-93,000 yuan/mt, with LME nickel hovering at $11,350/mt. Spot prices are set at 91,000-92,000 yuan/mt. 

Lead: LME lead rallied from a low of $1,967.5/mt and tested pressure at the $2,000/mt level. It ended 1.09% higher at $1,998/mt, with open interests up 1,101 lots. We expect it to continue to test resistance at $2,000/mt today. Supported by its LME counterpart, the SHFE 1902 contract slowed declines as it settled at 17,460 yuan/mt after it consolidated around 17,430 yuan/mt. However, limited upward momentum is seen in the contract as shorts continued to dominate the market. 

Tin: LME tin increased to a high of $20,460/mt last Friday night and settled at $20,260/mt, buoyed by smaller supplies of refined tin. Last Friday, the Ministry of Trade in Indonesia said that its export of refined tin fell 3% from 2017, and stood at 75,677 mt in 2018. This is expected to keep LME tin trade robustly today, and test resistance at $21,000/mt. The SHFE 1905 contract also strengthened and jumped to the 60-day moving average. Today, it will test pressure at the 148,000 yuan/mt level.