SMM Evening Comments (Jan 11)

Price Review & Forecast 06:21:10PM Jan 11, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jan 11 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals ended mixed on Friday. Copper and zinc fell 0.5%, aluminium slid 0.3% while nickel gained 0.3% and tin rose 0.5%. Lead stayed flat.

The ferrous complex traded higher. Coking coal surged 3.5%, coke jumped 2.2%, rebar advanced 0.4%, hot-rolled coil grew 0.3% and iron ore inched up 0.2%.

Copper: As shorts took profits, the SHFE 1903 contract rebounded from a low of 47,090 yuan/mt. It hovered in a range of 47,240-47,320 yuan/mt in the afternoon and ended at 47,320 yuan/mt, down 0.5% on the day. The contract now stands below all short-term moving averages. It is likely to struggle to hold onto 47,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Aluminium: As shorts cut their positions, the SHFE 1903 contract rose to the day’s high of 13,425 yuan/mt, before it relinquished those gains to close the trading day 0.3% lower at 13,385 yuan/mt. The contract traded rangebound during the day and is expected to continue such pattern tonight.

Zinc: The SHFE 1903 contract recovered some overnight losses to finish the trading day 0.5% lower at 20,400 yuan/mt. Open interest for the 1901 and 1902 contracts lost over 19,000 lots on the day, reflecting caution across investors. Social inventories of refined zinc across Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong gained 7,200 mt in the week ended January 11. This limited upward momentum in SHFE zinc. The SHFE 1903 contract is likely to hover under the resistance at the 20- and 40-day moving averages tonight.

Nickel: As longs added their bets, the SHFE 1905 contract climbed during the day. This helped it recover overnight losses and end the trading day 0.3% higher at 91,720 yuan/mt. Its KDJ lines converged with an extended MACD red bar. The contract is likely to try to stand firmly above the 60-day moving average tonight.

Lead: The SHFE 1902 contract pared earlier gains to end the trading day barely changed at 17,485 yuan/mt. As short-term moving averages expanded downwards, the contract is likely to be weak and trade rangebound at the five-day moving average tonight. Of late, longs added limited bets and shorts dominated the market.

Tin: From a day-low of 146,040 yuan/mt, the SHFE 1905 contract climbed during the day. It hit the day’s high of 147,760 yuan/mt shortly before closing as longs aggressively loaded up their bets. This helped the contract to end the trading day 0.5% higher at 147,290 yuan/mt. The contract now stands at the 40-day moving average, above the five-, 10- and 20-day moving averages. It is likely to try to break through the 40- and 60-day moving averages in the near term.

Key Words:  Evening comments   Copper   Aluminium   Zinc   Nickel   Tin   Lead 

SMM Evening Comments (Jan 11)

Price Review & Forecast 06:21:10PM Jan 11, 2019 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jan 11 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals ended mixed on Friday. Copper and zinc fell 0.5%, aluminium slid 0.3% while nickel gained 0.3% and tin rose 0.5%. Lead stayed flat.

The ferrous complex traded higher. Coking coal surged 3.5%, coke jumped 2.2%, rebar advanced 0.4%, hot-rolled coil grew 0.3% and iron ore inched up 0.2%.

Copper: As shorts took profits, the SHFE 1903 contract rebounded from a low of 47,090 yuan/mt. It hovered in a range of 47,240-47,320 yuan/mt in the afternoon and ended at 47,320 yuan/mt, down 0.5% on the day. The contract now stands below all short-term moving averages. It is likely to struggle to hold onto 47,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Aluminium: As shorts cut their positions, the SHFE 1903 contract rose to the day’s high of 13,425 yuan/mt, before it relinquished those gains to close the trading day 0.3% lower at 13,385 yuan/mt. The contract traded rangebound during the day and is expected to continue such pattern tonight.

Zinc: The SHFE 1903 contract recovered some overnight losses to finish the trading day 0.5% lower at 20,400 yuan/mt. Open interest for the 1901 and 1902 contracts lost over 19,000 lots on the day, reflecting caution across investors. Social inventories of refined zinc across Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong gained 7,200 mt in the week ended January 11. This limited upward momentum in SHFE zinc. The SHFE 1903 contract is likely to hover under the resistance at the 20- and 40-day moving averages tonight.

Nickel: As longs added their bets, the SHFE 1905 contract climbed during the day. This helped it recover overnight losses and end the trading day 0.3% higher at 91,720 yuan/mt. Its KDJ lines converged with an extended MACD red bar. The contract is likely to try to stand firmly above the 60-day moving average tonight.

Lead: The SHFE 1902 contract pared earlier gains to end the trading day barely changed at 17,485 yuan/mt. As short-term moving averages expanded downwards, the contract is likely to be weak and trade rangebound at the five-day moving average tonight. Of late, longs added limited bets and shorts dominated the market.

Tin: From a day-low of 146,040 yuan/mt, the SHFE 1905 contract climbed during the day. It hit the day’s high of 147,760 yuan/mt shortly before closing as longs aggressively loaded up their bets. This helped the contract to end the trading day 0.5% higher at 147,290 yuan/mt. The contract now stands at the 40-day moving average, above the five-, 10- and 20-day moving averages. It is likely to try to break through the 40- and 60-day moving averages in the near term.

Key Words:  Evening comments   Copper   Aluminium   Zinc   Nickel   Tin   Lead