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SMM Evening Comments (Dec 26)
Dec 26,2018 18:04CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Dec 26 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous and ferrous metals ended mixed on Wednesday with iron ore leading the gains and closing 1.34% higher.

Zinc increased 0.63%, copper jumped 0.27%, aluminium rose 0.22%, while nickel fell 1.67%, tin lost 1.1%, and lead dropped 0.3%. Rebar grew 0.24%, while coke dipped 1.43%, hot-rolled coil slid 0.33%, and coking coal went down 0.26%.

Copper: The SHFE 1902 contract rebounded after mounting shorts lowered it to a low of 47,840 yuan/mt at noon. It hovered around the daily moving average near closing and ended at 48,040 yuan/mt, with open interests down 9726 lots. Some 41.86 million yuan of capital left all SHFE copper contracts. We see the 1902 contract testing support at the daily moving average, or the 47,980 yuan/mt level tonight. 

Aluminium: A lack of confidence in longs dragged the SHFE 1902 contract at noon, after it traded above the daily moving average and rose to an intraday high of 13,870 yuan/mt in the morning. It still closed higher on the day at 13,790 yuan/mt, with open interests down 5,682 lots to 2,852 lots. We expect it to test support at the 40-day moving average tonight. 

Zinc: The SHFE 1902 contract traded robustly as it received support from longs after it successfully tested support at the 20,600 yuan/mt level twice at noon. It rose to a high of 20,750 yuan/mt and ended at 20,715 yuan/mt. However, uncertainty lingers from weak supply and demand. The contract is likely to trade rangebound around the daily moving average tonight. 

Nickel: The SHFE 1905 contract fell to a month’s low of 87,410 yuan/mt with pressure from shorts. Support below from the 87,400 yuan/mt level settled it at 87,870 yuan/mt, down 1,490 yuan/mt from Tuesday. Open interests accumulated 39,000 lots to 335,000 lots. We see the contract testing support at 87,400 yuan/mt tonight as the KDJ indicator expanded downwards and the MACD red line shortened. 

Lead: Pressure from shorts lowered the SHFE 1902 contract sharply twice today, but the 17,655 yuan/mt level or the Bollinger lower band provided support. As some shorts took profits and left, the contract jumped to an intraday high of 17,860 yuan/mt and closed at 17,825 yuan/mt. Open interest grew 2,148 lots to 60,286 lots. Tonight, it is likely to test resistance at the 60-day moving average, with support at the Bollinger lower band. 

Tin: Slow consumption at the year-end kept the SHFE 1905 contract testing support below today. It mostly consolidated within 144,400-145,000 yuan/mt with an intraday low at 144,190 yuan/mt. Open interests increased 2,344 lots, and ended the contract at 144,370 yuan/mt. Support below is set at 143,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Evening comments
Futures movement

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