SMM Morning Comments (Dec 26)

SHANGHAI, Dec 26 (SMM) –

Copper: The SHFE 1902 contract traded rangebound to close at 48,000 yuan/mt overnight. The recent weakness in copper prices was triggered by concerns about slowing global economic growth. The contract is expected to trade at 47,900-48,400 yuan/mt today with spot prices at discounts of 10 yuan/mt to premiums of 60 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1902 contract traded in a tight range to close at 13,835 yuan/mt after it initially hit a high of 13,870 yuan/mt. Recent supply cuts and some 800,000 mt capacity cuts agreed among Chinese biggest firms supported prices. We expect SHFE aluminium to remain firm in the near term and to trade at 13,800-13,900 yuan/mt today. Spot discounts are seen at 110-70 yuan/mt.

Zinc: The SHFE 1902 contract tumbled after hovering in a 30 yuan/mt range overnight. It closed at 20,560 yuan/mt. With pressure at moving averages, the contract is unlikely to buck the current downtrend today with most transactions at 20,350-20,800 yuan/mt.

Nickel: After earlier losses, the SHFE 1905 contract saw losses accelerate shortly before closing overnight as longs aggressively covered their positions. The contract finished overnight some 1.3% lower at 88,160 yuan/mt. Plunges in stocks and oil prices lowered SHFE nickel to the year’s lows. The SHFE 1905 contract is likely to trade at 87,500-89,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 88,000-92,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: After an initial tumble to 17,740 yuan/mt, the SHFE 1902 contract traded rangebound at the 17,775 yuan/mt level and closed at 17,780 yuan/mt overnight. Recent losses lowered the contract below moving averages.

Tin: After a lower open, the SHFE 1905 contract slid to close at 144,940 yuan/mt overnight. It is likely to test support at 145,000 yuan/mt today, with next support at 143,000 yuan/mt.

The LME shut on Tuesday for the Christmas holiday and will be closed today for Boxing Day.