SMM Morning Comments (Dec 14)

SHANGHAI, Dec 14 (SMM) –

Copper: LME copper pared earlier gains to close at $6,153/mt on Thursday. The SHFE 1902 contract came off from a high of 49,440 yuan/mt overnight, ending at 49,260 yuan/mt. As the US dollar strengthened, copper prices are expected to remain rangebound at lows today. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,150-6,200/mt with the SHFE 1902 contract at 49,000-49,500 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen lower at 20-70 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1902 contract recovered some earlier losses to close at 13,615 yuan/mt overnight. A weekly decline of 57,000 mt in social stocks in China provided some support to SHFE aluminium prices. We expect the contract to trade at 13,600-13,700 yuan/mt today with spot prices at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 20 yuan/mt. Despite a higher open, LME aluminium reversed earlier gains and slid to close at $1,930/mt on Thursday. We expect it to remain weak today with most transactions at $1,925-1,945/mt.

Zinc: LME zinc fluctuated to close 0.35% higher at $2,575/mt on Thursday. Stocks across LME-registered warehouses stayed low and the LME zinc cash/three-month price backwardation remained wide. Uncertainties over macro economy diverge shorts and longs and we expect LME zinc to trade at $2,560-2,610/mt today. The SHFE 1902 contract tumbled to a low of 20,850 yuan/mt overnight before it rebounded to close at 20,980 yuan/mt. The contract held onto the 20,980 yuan/mt level and is expected to remain rangebound today trading between 20,750-21,150 yuan/mt.

Nickel: LME nickel initially fell to a low of $10,725/mt, just above the year-low of $10,720/mt on November 27. It then clawed back those losses to close 0.6% higher at $10,850/mt. The SHFE 1905 contract fluctuated to close 0.4% higher at 89,380 yuan/mt overnight. Market focus is largely attuned to the fundamentals as investors await an upcoming two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is scheduled to take place on December 18-19. The recent improvement in spot trades limited losses in nickel prices. LME nickel is expected to hover around $10,800/mt today with the SHFE 1905 contract at 88,500-90,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 89,000-96,500 yuan/mt.

Lead: As the US dollar climbed, LME lead dropped past all moving averages to end at $1,947/mt on Thursday. After a slightly lower open, the SHFE 1901 contract crept to close at 18,495 yuan/mt overnight. It is expected to remain rangebound at highs before the delivery date and might fall after the delivery.

Tin: LME tin extended its gains on Thursday and closed at $19,455/mt. The SHFE 1905 contract inched up to close at 146,840 yuan/mt overnight. With supply cuts across Chinese tin producers, tin prices are expected to strengthen into the near term. Resistance is seen at $19,700/mt for LME tin and its SHFE counterpart is likely to test the 147,500 yuan/mt level.