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SMM Morning Comments (Dec 11)
Dec 11,2018 09:56CST
price review forecast
SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, Dec 11 (SMM) –

Copper: LME copper reversed earlier gains to close lower at $6,095/mt on Monday as the US dollar rebounded. The SHFE 1902 contract fluctuated to close lower at 48,880 yuan/mt overnight. With a strong dollar and downbeat Chinese economic data, copper prices are expected to remain rangebound at lows today. LME copper is likely to trade at $6,070-6,110/mt with the SHFE 1902 contract at 48,700-49,000 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 110-360 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1901 contract traded lower to close at 13,630 yuan/mt overnight. The prices remained rangebound as social inventories continued to decline while dips in prices of raw materials such as alumina and prebaked anode waned cost support to aluminium prices. We expect the most-traded SHFE aluminium contract to trade at 13,550-13,700 yuan/mt today with spot prices at discounts of 20 yuan/mt to premiums of 20 yuan/mt. LME aluminium rebounded to close at $1,963/mt, near the 20-day moving average on Monday after it slumped to a low of $1,935/mt on gains in the US dollar. LME aluminium is expected to continue to hover among moving averages and to trade at $1,940-1,955/mt today.

Zinc: LME zinc fell past the five-day moving average to close lower at $2,577/mt on Monday after it hit a high of $2,594/mt. Zinc stocks across LME-registered warehouses have increased for three consecutive days, and this prompted longs to be cautious in building positions. With limited upward momentum to break the $2,600/mt level, LME zinc today is likely to test support at the 40- and 60-day moving average, and most transactions are seen at $2,560-2,600/mt. After a negative open, the SHFE 1902 contract traded lower to close at 20,885 yuan/mt overnight. With limited steam, the contract is expected to trade at 20,700-21,150 yuan/mt today.

Nickel: LME nickel slid to close below $10,800/mt on Monday as longs covered their positions. Stocks across LME-registered warehouses dipped to 210,800 mt. The SHFE 1905 contract opened lower and slipped to close at 88,850 yuan/mt overnight. We expect nickel prices to extend their losses today. The SHFE 1905 contract is likely to trade at 87,600-88,900 yuan/mt with spot prices at 87,500-96,300 yuan/mt.

Lead: As the US dollar recovered, LME lead came off from earlier highs and closed lower at $1,955/mt on Monday. This moved it beyond its rangebound trading and below several moving averages. With a weak LME counterpart, the SHFE 1901 contract slipped overnight and ended at 18,435 yuan/mt. The contract remained at highs with support at the 10-day moving average.

Tin: LME tin hovered just below the $19,000/mt level on Monday and closed at $18,955/mt. With macroeconomic concerns, LME tin is likely to remain rangebound with support at $18,700/mt. The SHFE 1901 contract hovered around the five-day moving average overnight and closed at 144,340 yuan/mt. It is expected to continue to trade under pressure today with support at 143,000 yuan/mt.

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