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SMM Morning Comments (Dec 10)
Dec 10,2018 09:43CST
price review forecast
SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, Dec 10 (SMM) –

Copper: LME copper fluctuated to close slightly higher at $6,149/mt on Friday. Despite a positive start, the SHFE 1902 contract weakened on Friday night, with pressure from the daily moving average. It closed at 49,060 yuan/mt. Open interest for the SHFE copper complex remained below 500,000 lots, suggesting limited confidence among investors. LME copper is expected to trade at $6,120-6,170/mt today with the SHFE 1902 contract at 48,900-49,200 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 150-420 yuan/mt. Tight supplies are likely to keep buyers chasing high-quality materials.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1901 contract opened higher at 13,660 yuan/mt on Friday night and traded rangebound to finish the trading hours at 13,630 yuan/mt. It is expected to trade at 13,550-13,690 yuan/mt today with spot discounts up to 40 yuan/mt. Market participants today may take some cues from China’s social inventory change of primary aluminium over the weekend. LME aluminium jumped past the 40-day moving average to a high of $1,977/mt on Friday after the US dollar slid. It closed at $1,963/mt, near the five-day moving average. We expect it to continue to move among moving averages with a trading range of $1,945-1,970/mt today.

Zinc: LME zinc reversed earlier gains in late trading of Friday and closed at $2,590/mt. Stocks across LME-registered warehouses rebounded for two days after consecutive declines. We expect it to trade rangebound today with a trading range of $2,570-2,620/mt. The SHFE 1902 contract opened higher on Friday night and hovered around 20,350 yuan/mt in earlier trades. With massive sell-offs, the contract relinquished all those gains and fell into the red to close at 21,035 yuan/mt. Despite low inventories, uncertainties over the US-China trade negotiations weighed on SHFE zinc. We expect the contract to try to stand firmly above the 21,000 yuan/mt level today with most transactions at 20,800-21,300 yuan/mt.

Nickel: LME nickel fluctuated to close higher at $10,955/mt on Friday. The SHFE 1905 contract fell to close at 89,350 yuan/mt on Friday night after climbing to a high of 90,140 yuan/mt. LME nickel is expected to hover around $10,900/mt today with the SHFE 1905 contract at 88,500-90,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 88,500-98,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: With resistance at $2,000/mt, LME lead nudged up to close at $1,995/mt on Friday. The SHFE 1901 contract jumped shortly before the closing on Friday night, ending at 18,560 yuan/mt. It continued to trade rangebound at highs and is likely to find a direction in the short term.

Tin: LME tin remained under pressure on Friday and traded slightly higher to close at $18,990/mt. It is expected to remain rangebound with support at $18,700/mt. The SHFE 1901 contract hovered between the five- and 10-day moving averages on Friday night and ended at 144,910 yuan/mt. It is expected to remain rangebound in the short term with support at 143,500 yuan/mt.

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