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SMM Morning Comments (Nov 30)
Nov 30,2018 09:46CST
price review forecast
SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, Nov 30 (SMM) – 

Copper: The SHFE 1902 contract came off after it rose twice above the daily moving average as the market remained cautious ahead of the G20 meeting on Friday and Saturday. It closed at 49,530 yuan/mt, with open interests losing 3,242 lots. LME copper unsuccessfully tested support at the daily moving average as longs exited the market. With support at the 40-day moving average, it is expected to trade at $6,200-6,240/mt, with its SHFE counterpart at 49,400-49,800 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen firm at 90-150 yuan/mt on the last trading day for products with a November invoice. 

Aluminium: The SHFE 1901 contract opened below all moving averages overnight, and dipped further to close at 13,645 yuan/mt as investors added their shorts. Slow downstream demand weighed on fundamentals despite cuts on supplies. We expect the contract to trade at 13,600-13,700 yuan/mt with spot discounts at 80-20 yuan/mt. LME aluminium failed to stand firm above the 10-day moving average with resistance at the 20-day moving average. It is seen trading at $1,920-1,940/mt today. 

Zinc: Pressure at the five-day moving average and a stronger US dollar pulled LME zinc from a high of $2,480/mt. However, current high spot premiums are likely to limit its downward room. The SHFE zinc dominant contract switched to the 1902 contract overnight, which settled 0.73% higher on the day as shorts left near closing. Limited production across domestic smelters and a closed import arbitrage window supported prices. It is expected to hover around the five-day moving average and trade at 19,800-20,250 yuan/mt today, with its LME counterpart trading at $2,440-2,485/mt. 

Nickel: The SHFE nickel 1901 contract led increases among base metals, closing 1.47% higher overnight, with its LME counterpart rising 1.33%, even as the US dollar recovered. We expect LME nickel to hover around $10,900 /mt, with the contract trading at 89,000-91,000 yuan/mt today. Spot prices are seen at 90,000-100,000 yuan/mt today.

Lead: LME lead increased to a high of $1,969/mt during the European trading session but lost part of the increase and settled at $1,931/mt as longs exited. We expect heavy pressure above to limit upward room in prices. The SHFE 1901 contract consolidated above all moving averages and closed slightly higher at 18,270 yuan/mt. It may maintain its rangebound trend today. 

Tin: Prices of tin continued to rebound as LME tin closed 0.79% higher with the SHFE 1901 contract gaining 0.15%. LME tin is expected to test pressure at $19,000/mt today.

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