Macro Roundup (Nov 1)

SHANGHAI, Nov 1 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

Most LME and SHFE base metals ended in negative territory overnight with LME zinc being the biggest loser, down over 2% on the day. LME nickel tumbled close to 1.9%, lead dropped some 1.4%, aluminium lost 0.5% and copper fell 0.4% while tin inched up 0.2%.

SHFE nickel slid more than 1.6%, zinc slipped over 1%, copper decreased close to 0.7%, aluminium sank over 0.4% and tin dipped more than 0.1% while lead gained 0.25%.

The US dollar edged up to a fresh 16-month high against a basket of key currencies on Wednesday as the US economy continued to strengthen, putting the greenback on pace for a seventh straight month of gains.

The ADP national employment report on Wednesday showed that US private sector payrolls increased by the most in eight months in October, suggesting overall job growth accelerated after Hurricane Florence affected restaurant and retail employment in September.

"The job market bounced back strongly last month despite being hit by back-to-back hurricanes," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's, said in a statement. "Testimonial to the robust employment picture is the broad-based gains in jobs across industries. The only blemish is the struggles small businesses are having filling open job positions."

China reported slower manufacturing growth in October for the second straight month as the trade war dispute with the US continues.

The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.2 last month, lower than the expected 50.6 and down from 50.8 in September.

The official PMI reading for October was the lowest since July 2016, with the production and new orders sub-indices also falling from a month ago. New export orders contracted for the fifth straight month.

A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below that signals contraction.

Chinese statistics bureau statistician Zhao Qinghe wrote in an analysis of the data that manufacturing activity in October was hit by long national public holidays and a "complex and variable external environment" that caused "fluctuations" in demand and supply.

The official services PMI also fell to 53.9 in October from 54.9 in September.

German annual retail sales fell by an adjusted 2.6% in September compared to the year before, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed. That was its sharpest drop since June 2013. On a month-on-month basis, German retail sales gained 0.1% in September.

Consumer prices across the eurozone rose the fastest in nearly six years in October, largely on the back of higher energy costs, official figures showed Wednesday.

Consumer price index (CPI) for the eurozone rose by 2.2% in the year to October, up from 2.1% the previous month, according to statistics agency Eurostat. That is the highest since December 2012, when inflation was also 2.2%.

Stripping out volatile components such as energy, but also food, alcohol and tobacco, the so-called core inflation rate rose to 1.1% in the year to October from 0.9% a month ago.

The eurozone unemployment rate remained at 8.1%, the lowest since November 2008 and in line with forecast.

The Chicago PMI, also known as Chicago business barometer, fell to 58.4 in October, amid restrained production and rising cost due to tariffs on China.

The index declined by 2 points from 60.4 in September to a six-month low, according to a statement released on Wednesday by the Institute for Supply Management Chicago.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday that US crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, rose 3.22 million barrels in the week to October 26 after growing by 6.35 million barrels in the previous week.

Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, fell 4.05 million barrels, and gasoline stocks fell 3.16 million barrels.

Day ahead

Economic data slated for release today include China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI for October, US weekly jobless claims, Markit and ISM manufacturing PMI for October.