SHANGHAI, Oct 22 (SMM) – China's production of cobalt powder and refined cobalt is likely to fall 6% from 2017 to stand at 12,000 mt in metal content in 2018, SMM expects. 

The output of cobalt (II, III) oxide and ternary precursors, however, are expected to grow 3% and 40% year on year in 2018, to 60,000 mt and 170,000 mt in physical content, respectively, an SMM survey found. 

In the first half of 2018, China consumed 6,000 mt of cobalt powder and refined cobalt, 21,000 mt of cobalt (II, III) oxide, and 9,500 mt of ternary precursors, SMM data showed. All are in metal content. 

China imported 39,400 mt in metal content of cobalt raw materials in the first half of 2018. This was up 12% from the same period last year. We expect imports to rise 9% from a year ago to 72,000 mt in metal content in 2018.

Downstream cobalt demand from China's new-energy vehicles (NEV) market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 47% from 2017 to 2020, SMM forecasts. Consumption from the sector is likely to reach 20,000 mt in metal content by 2020.