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SMM Evening Comments (Oct 8)
Oct 8,2018 17:27CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Oct 8 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals closed mixed while ferrous complex rose across the board on Monday October 8. 

SHFE zinc grew 1.13%, aluminium jumped 0.84%, lead increased 0.58%, while copper lost 0.04%, nickel slid 0.27%, and tin fell 0.54%. Coking coal soared 5.72%, coke rallied 4.22%, hot-rolled coil grew 1.17%, iron ore rose 1.01%, and rebar went up 0.74%. 

Copper: The SHFE 1811 contract rebounded to an intraday high of 50,240 yuan/mt from a low of 49,820 yuan/mt in the morning. It returned to the 50,000 yuan/mt level and settled at 50,010 yuan/mt after some longs took profits and left. Some 90.7 million yuan of capital left all SHFE copper contracts today while 355 million yuan entered SHFE base metal contracts. Pressure above was seen at the five-day moving average, and the MACD red lines shortened. The contract is expected to test support at the 50,000 yuan/mt level tonight. 

Aluminium: The SHFE 1811 contract settled at an intraday high of 14,450 yuan/mt as shorts sped up their exit from the market in the afternoon. The contract ceased its decline for four consecutive trading days before the National Day holiday. China's central bank decision on a reserve requirement ratios cut buoyed market sentiment. Investors should continue to take guidance from the movement of the US dollar index and the price of LME aluminium tonight. 

Zinc: The SHFE 1811 contract opened at highs but failed to stand firm above the 22,000 yuan/mt level. It closed at 21,930 yuan/mt with open interests up 8,350 lots to 198,000 lots. A short squeeze in the October contract eased as social inventories across three major consumption areas grew some 20,700 mt during the National Day holiday to 147,400 mt. We expect the 1811 contract to hover around 22,000 yuan/mt with limited upward momentum tonight. 

Nickel: Falling longs dragged the SHFE 1811 contract below the five-, 10-, and 20-day moving averages to a half-month low of 102,460 yuan/mt. It then received support at the 103,000 yuan/mt level after rebounding to around the daily moving average. Pressure above is seen at the 20-day moving average tonight. 

Lead: The SHFE 1811 contract rallied three times during the day as shorts exited, and rose to an intraday high of 18,170 yuan/mt in the afternoon. It broke pressure at the five-day moving average today and closed at 18,130 yuan/mt. We expect it to consolidate at current levels and to stop its decline tonight. 

Tin: The SHFE 1901 contract mostly consolidated around the five-day moving average during the day with limited upward momentum as consumption continued to be weak on sufficient supplies. Both longs and shorts left the market, and reduced open interests by 442 lots to 29,584 lots. Mineral processing plants in Gejiu of Yunnan province did not close across the board, as expected, and this also weighed on tin prices. 

Evening comments
Futures movement

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