Limited arrivals, stable outflows shrink nickel stocks in Shanghai-bonded areas

Novametal USA released its October 2026 raw-material surcharges for stainless steel cold-drawn wire. The molybdenum average increased 1.0% from US$33.2230/lb to US$33.5558/lb, equivalent to approximately US$73,244/t and US$73,978/t. However, nickel and chromium averages declined 1.9% and 1.2%, respectively. Consequently, the 316 alloy surcharge fell from US$1.94/lb to US$1.92/lb, while 316L declined from US$1.98/lb to US$1.97/lb. After the energy surcharge rose from US$0.10/lb to US$0.12/lb, the total 316 surcharge remained unchanged at US$2.04/lb and 316L edged up to US$2.09/lb. SMM analysis: weaker nickel and chromium partly offset higher molybdenum costs, limiting downstream price transmission.

Tubacex issued its October tube alloy surcharges. In euros, hot-/cold-finished 316/316L fell from €5.07/€5.59 per kg (€5,070/€5,590 per tonne) to €5.05/€5.56 per kg (€5,050/€5,560 per tonne). High Mo content materials, with Mo above 2.5%, declined from €5.26/€5.79 to €5.23/€5.76 per kg. Surcharges for 2205 and 2507 were unchanged, while 254 SMO rose from €9.64/€10.62 to €9.67/€10.65 per kg. SMM analysis: most Mo-bearing tube grades were flat or slightly lower, while 254 SMO moved higher, indicating differentiated cost transmission across grades.

India's stainless steel scrap market moved in different directions in the week ended 1 October. Domestic 304 scrap prices edged lower and import offers followed, while 316 prices held steady in both the domestic and import markets. Weaker LME nickel prices weighed on 304 sentiment, and buyers stuck to immediate requirements as trading slowed over the festive period. Tight availability limited downside for 316. On procurement, short processing windows following the government's relaxation of Pre-Shipment Inspection Certificate (PSIC) requirements, along with additional import costs, continued to limit mills' flexibility. Some mills are evaluating billets, slabs and nickel pig iron (NPI) as alternatives to scrap to manage input costs. Looking further out, the EU's proposal to restrict metal waste exports to India under its new Waste Shipment Regulation (WSR) would, if adopted, further narrow India's scrap import options. In the near term, 304 scrap faces mild downward pressure if nickel stays weak, while 316 is expected to remain firm as long as supply stays tight. PSIC developments and the relative economics of billets and NPI will be key factors to watch.