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SMM Evening Comments (Sep 26)
Sep 26,2018 18:14CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Sep 26 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals and ferrous complex dipped for the most part on Wednesday September 26. 

SHFE lead fell 1.29%, tin lost 0.65%, aluminium slid 0.55%, zinc went down 0.3%, while nickel grew 0.61%, and copper increased 0.7%. Coke slumped 2.29%, hot-rolled coil lost 0.96%, rebar declined 0.64%, while coking coal inched up 0.12%, and iron ore rose 0.6%.

Copper: The SHFE 1811 contract fell twice to an intraday low of 50,390 yuan/mt as shorts surged and longs declined. It mostly hovered within a narrow range below the daily moving average today, and closed at 50,530 yuan/mt. Its LME counterpart is likely to buoy the contract to test pressure at 51,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Aluminium: The SHFE 1811 contract slid for two times during the day as investors covered their longs ahead of the upcoming National Day holiday. The contract settled at 14,540 yuan/mt with open interests down 6,398 lots to 226,000 lots. We expect it to test support at the ten-day moving average tonight. 

Zinc: The SHFE 1811 contract saw open interests losing 15,854 lots to 189,000 lots today, which dragged the price down to a low of 21,375 yuan/mt in the afternoon. Limited upward room is expected as short squeeze in domestic market eased and as downstream preholiday restocking enthusiasm cooled. A robust LME zinc will guide movement of the contract tonight. 

Nickel: The SHFE 1811 contract stood firm above the 20-day moving average, and closed at 105,710 yuan/mt with buoyance from its LME counterpart. Shutdown of BHP’s Kalgoorlie smelter is set to provide support to the price in the fourth quarter. The contract is expected to hover around 105,600 yuan/mt tonight as its KDJ indicators expanded downward and the MACD red line lengthened. Tonight, investors would take more guidance from the US EIA crude oil stockpiles, its new house sales in August, and its weekly MBA mortgage applications.

Lead: The SHFE 1811 contract was pulled up slightly by the SHFE zinc contracts, after falling below the 60-day moving average and the 18,000 yuan/mt level as longs exited. The contract has traded with pressure at the 10-day moving average for several days, but support below at 18,000 yuan/mt remained. It is likely to continue its weak trend tonight. 

Tin: The SHFE 1901 contract traded weakly without upward momentum, and settled at 145,790 yuan/mt. Support below is set at 145,000 yuan/mt in the short run. 

Evening comments
Futures movement

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