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Macro Roundup (Aug 16)
Aug 16,2018 08:32CST
data analysis
A roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today

SHANGHAI, Aug 16 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar index closed at 96.71 overnight after rising to over 96.98 earlier, the highest since June 2017 as investors added their holdings of the greenback on worries over slowing Chinese growth and Europe's exposure to Turkey. Upbeat figures on domestic retail sales, manufacturing output and worker productivity also supported the greenback and the view of steady US economic growth.

The Chinese yuan fell past 6.95 per dollar in  overnight offshore trading, following a batch of disappointing economic data earlier this week.

The euro rebounded from a 13-month trough versus the dollar and Swiss franc, helped by news that Qatar pledged to invest $15 billion in Turkey. This move is seen supportive of Turkey's banking system and reduced anxiety about European banks' exposure in Turkey.

Base metals tumbled across the board overnight. LME zinc slumped over 6.8%, lead plunged 6%, nickel dropped over 4%, tin lost 3.9%, copper fell 3.5% and aluminium slid over 2%. SHFE zinc plummeted 4.9%, lead collapsed 3.2%, copper tumbled 2.9%, nickel went down 2.8% with aluminium down 2.2% and tin down 1.9%.

US retail sales rose more than expected in July as households boosted purchases of motor vehicles and clothing, suggesting the economy remained strong early in the third quarter.

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that retail sales increased 0.5% last month, instead of the forecasts of nudging up 0.1%. But data for June was revised lower to show sales gaining 0.2% instead of the previously reported 0.5% rise.

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales advanced 0.5% last month. July's increase in the so-called core retail sales suggested the economy started the third quarter on solid footing after logging its best performance in nearly four years in the second quarter.

US industrial production edged higher in July, boosted by higher manufacturing output in a positive sign for economic growth.

The Federal Reserve Board said on Wednesday industrial production rose 0.1% last month after an upwardly revised 1% increase in June. Manufacturing output rose 0.3% in July, in line with the forecasts. Motor vehicle production rose 0.9% while output of machinery expanded 0.6% and computers and electronics grew 1.3%.

The data appeared to show US factories weathering the early days of an escalation of a US trade war with China. Manufacturing, which accounts for about 12% of the economy, is still being supported by a strong domestic and global economy.

US commercial crude inventories rose by 6.8 million barrels in the week ended August 10, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported. Economists had forecast stockpiles would fall by 2.89 million barrels. Stocks at Cushing, Oklahoma rose by 1.64 million barrels last week.

Stockpiles of gasoline shrank 740,000 barrels, slightly more than expected, while inventories of distillate fuels, including diesel and home heating fuel, rose by 3.57 million barrels, more than three times the expected increase.

Day ahead

Key things to watch today include the eurozone’s seasonally adjusted current account surplus in June and US initial jobless claims last week.


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