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SMM Evening Comments (Aug 13)
Aug 13,2018 17:51CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Aug 13 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals dipped for the most part as SHFE zinc led the losses and closed 1.4% lower. Lead fell 0.82%, tin dipped 0.41%, copper slid 0.2%, while aluminium gained 0.1%, and nickel rose 0.27%.

The ferrous complex mostly gained. Rebar jumped 2.7%, coke rose 1.9%, hot-rolled coil increased 1.6%, iron ore grew 1.5%, while coking coal went down 0.71%. 

Copper: The SHFE 1810 contract stood firm above the 20-day moving averages as longs add their wager in the afternoon. This came after the contract hovered around 49,580 yuan/mt and touched a low of 49,530 yuan/mt. The US dollar consolidated at highs around 96.4 as the Turkish lira depreciated. The offshore yuan also went weaker to stand at 6.88 per US dollar. The 1810 contract is expected to test support at the 10-day moving average tonight. Investors would take more guidance tonight from China’s July social financing and M2 money supply. 

Aluminium: As the US dollar strengthened, the SHFE 1810 contract traded under pressure and dipped to a low of 14,640 yuan/mt in the morning. Amid rising longs in the afternoon, the contract stood above the five-day moving average and closed at 14,690 yuan/mt, up 15 yuan/mt from last Friday. Open interests rose 710 lots to 281,894 lots. The contract is expected to test support at the five-day moving average tonight. 

Zinc: The SHFE 1810 contract received support at the 21,000 yuan/mt level after falling sharply below the Bollinger middle band to a low of 21,055 yuan/mt. It closed 45 yuan/mt lower from last Friday at 21,240 yuan/mt. Downward room still exists as its KDJ indicator expanded downwards, and we see it testing support at 21,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Nickel: A stronger LME nickel buoyed the SHFE 1811 contract to a high of 114,500 yuan/mt, with open interests increasing by 20,000 lots. As its KDJ indicators expanded upwards and the longer-term moving average of the MACD lengthened, the 1811 contract is likely to hover around 113,800 yuan/mt tonight. 

Lead: The 1809 contract stayed in a downward trend as it fell below the five- and 10-day moving averages one after another with pressure from a higher US dollar. As most base metals rebounded in the afternoon, the contract climbed up to the daily moving average, and closed at 18,180 yuan/mt, down 150 yuan/mt on the day. We see it testing support at the 18,100 yuan/mt level tonight. 

Tin: Although closed higher from last Friday, the SHFE 1809 contract traded weakly during the day amid stronger US dollar. The contract climbed up gradually after a slump to 145,010 yuan/mt after opening. We forecast it to face pressure at 147,000 yuan/mt, with support at 145,000 yuan/mt in the short run. 


Evening comments
Futures movement

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