Macro Roundup (Aug 6)

SHANGHAI, Aug 6 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last weekend and what is expected today.

Last weekend

The US dollar index traded rangebound at highs and closed at 95.2 on Friday after data showed US job growth slowed in July.

China's offshore yuan rebounded after the country’s central bank on Friday imposed a reserve requirement of 20% on trading of foreign exchange forward contracts. Beijing also announced retaliatory tariffs on $60 billion worth of US goods, and warned of further measures.

LME base metals closed mixed on Friday. Zinc and nickel increased over 1%, copper inched up 0.61%, tin edged up 0.15% while aluminium dipped 0.49% and lead fell 0.73%.

SHFE base metals rose across the board on Friday night. Zinc and nickel went up over 0.8%, copper gained 0.63%, with lead, aluminum and tin up some 0.1%.

China’s Caixin services purchasing managers’ index (PMI) in July fell to the lowest level since March, at 52.8, from June’s 53.9. This was mainly due to the smallest growth in new business since December 2015.

July’s weak new business growth was “a clear sign that demand for services had worsened”, said Zhengsheng Zhong, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group, in a statement accompanying the survey.

Forward-looking sentiment meanwhile was the second-weakest on record.

Caixin’s composite PMI covering both the manufacturing and services sectors also declined in July, coming in at 52.3, compared with the previous month’s 53.

Eurozone retail sales rose by 0.3% in June, less than the expected 0.4%, data from the European statistics office Eurostat showed on Friday. On a yearly basis, retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the currency increased by 1.2%, below the expected 1.4%.

US payroll growth turned sluggish in July after two robust months, though the unemployment rate edged lower and the overall jobs picture continued to look solid, according to Labor Department numbers released Friday.

Total nonfarm payrolls increased by 157,000 for the month, below the expected 193,000. The unemployment rate fell 0.1 percentage point to 3.9%, suggesting a tightening labour market.

US trade deficit widened in June amid the country's ongoing tariff battle with its global trading partners.

The total deficit in goods and services rose to $46.3 billion for the month, from $43.2 billion in May, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Imports increased by $1.6 billion, to $260.2 billion, while exports declined by $1.5 billion, to $213.8 billion.

Soybean exports surged again following a similar spike in May while oil imports were the highest in three and a half years.

US ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 55.7 in July, its worst since August 2017, below an expected decline to 58.6 from 59.1 in June.

Day ahead

Key things to watch today will be China’s foreign exchange reserves for July and the eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for August.