Macro Roundup (Jul 25)

SHANGHAI, Jul 25 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar index fell 0.05% to close at 94.58 with pressure from a stronger euro, which was buoyed by robust German economic data.

LME base metals rose across the board with copper leading the gains and closing 2.2% higher. Nickel grew nearly 1.7%, zinc increased almost 1.6%, lead gained over 1%, tin went up nearly 1%, and aluminium inched up. 

Markit's Germany manufacturing purchasing managers' index exceeded the expected 55.5 and rose to 57.3 in July, from 55.9 the previous month. 

This marked the strongest reading in three months, indicating that strength in the manufacturing sector helped the country regain some momentum after its weak performance in the second quarter.

"There was definitely a soft patch around April/May, from which we have recovered a bit but it's failed to really regain the momentum we saw earlier in the year - and you can ascribe that to these trade war tensions," according to Chris Williamson, IHS Markit chief business economist.

The eurozone manufacturing PMI came in at 55.1 in July, compared to the expected 54.7 and June's 54.9. 

"Given the waning growth of new business and a further slide in business optimism, the outlook has also deteriorated, notably in manufacturing, where the surveys saw worries about trade wars intensify markedly in July,” Williamson added. 

Markit's US manufacturing PMI inched up from June’s 55.4 and the expected 55.1, to stand at 55.5 this month.

The US house price index in May rose 0.2% from April, slower from the expected rise of 0.3%, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). The figure for May increased 6.4% from a year ago, flat from the year-on-year gain in April.  

Day ahead

Key factors to watch today will be the US weekly crude oil inventories from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the American Petroleum Institute (API), as well as Germany's Ifo business climate index in July.