SHANGHAI, Jul 20 (SMM) – SHFE nonferrous metals closed mixed on Friday July 20. Lead dropped 1.23% and aluminium slid 0.21%. Copper recovered some early losses in the afternoon and closed 0.21% lower. Zinc inched up 0.19%.Tin lost some early gains before it closed 0.38% higher. Nickel climbed up in the afternoon and edged 0.43% higher.
The ferrous complex rose across the board except for hot-rolled coil. Coke surged 1.36%, coking coal gained 0.78%, iron ore inched up 0.43% and rebar nudged up.
Copper: The SHFE 1809 contract jumped to the 48,650 yuan/mt level in the afternoon as its LME counterpart rebounded to $6,100/mt and as some shorts covered their positions. While the contract closed higher today, it remained at low levels and is expected to hold steady at 48,500 yuan/mt level tonight. Tonight, the market can take some cues from Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard’s presentation on the US economy and monetary policy before the Glasgow Chamber of Commerce.
Aluminium: Despite the liquidity injection by the central bank, market sentiment barely improved and the SHFE 1809 contract traded rangebound around its daily moving average during the day. Investors were cautious as the US dollar index remained above 95. We expect the contract to continue to test the 14,000 yuan/mt level tonight.
Zinc: The SHFE 1809 contract hovered around its daily moving average within a narrow range in the morning after its initial jump. As some shorts cut their positions, the contract climbed up to 21,230 yuan/mt in the afternoon. The trading level of the contract nudged up as the MACD green line shortened. With LME zinc's strong performance during European trading hours, we expect the SHFE 1809 contract to strengthen tonight.
Nickel: After it climbed to 109,500 yuan/mt in the morning, the SHFE 1809 contract fell to its daily moving average. As longs added their positions, the contract surged to 110,170 yuan/mt and then hovered around the 110,000 yuan/mt level in the afternoon. Its KDJ lines expanded upwards and are likely to converge, while MACD green line shortened. US-China trade disputes continue to weigh on market sentiment, but nickel fundamentals remain robust on low inventories and firm prices of stainless steel. Stainless steel production also recovered from maintenance works. We expect the contract to trade rangebound around the 109,000 yuan/mt level tonight.
Lead: The 1809 contract turned out to be the most liquid SHFE lead contract today. The contract came off to a low of 18,320 yuan/mt from a high of 18,420 yuan/mt amid bearish sentiment. It then increased to a high of 18,500 yuan/mt but fell to its daily moving average before closing as some longs covered their positions. We expect it to consolidate in the near term and to hover at its five-day moving average tonight. The 1808 contract fell below its daily moving average in the morning after its initial increase. It climbed up in the afternoon and hit a high of 18,980 yuan/mt at one point but then fell back below its daily moving average as some speculators took profits and left the market.
Tin: The SHFE 1809 contract climb to a high of 146,440 yuan/mt during the day but lost some gains before close as longs cut their positions. This indicated that resistance above the contract continues to linger. We expect the contract to remain rangebound in the short term with resistance at the 146,000 yuan/mt level.