Macro Roundup (Jul 17)-Shanghai Metals Market

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Macro Roundup (Jul 17)

Data Analysis 09:04:19AM Jul 17, 2018 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jul 17 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

Base metals dipped for the most part on slower growth of China's economy in the second quarter. LME zinc led the losses and closed 4.2% lower, nickel fell 2.4%, lead declined over 2%, tin dropped 1.5%, and copper edged down. Aluminium, however, gained over 1%. SHFE metals moved in line with their LME counterparts with zinc slumping 2.8%.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6.7% in April-June, down from 6.8% in the first quarter and in line with forecast. Its GDP in the first half of the year grew 6.8% year on year, up from the expected 6.7% and flat from the growth rate during the same period in 2017. 

In June, the value added by industrial enterprises above a designated size was up 6% year on year, lower from expected 6.5% and May's gain of 6.8%. The year-on-year growth from January to June stood at 6.7%, 0.2 percentage point lower from last year.

Its retail sales of consumer goods grew 9% year on year in June, accelerating from the 8.5% rise seen in May. In the first half of the year, the retail sales expanded 9.4% year on year to reach 18 trillion yuan, compared with a 9.5% growth the same period last year.

Investment in fixed assets in urban area rose 6% year on year during January-June, but the growth ratio fell 0.1 percentage point compared to a year ago.

"The national economy in the first half of 2018 has continued to experience stable performance and improved momentum. Favourable conditions supporting high-quality growth have increased, creating a solid foundation for achieving the major economic and social development goals for this year,” according to a spokesperson for China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

“However, uncertainties in the international environment have been increasing, and the structural readjustment in China has entered a crucial stage. China must adhere to the supply-side structural reform, expand effective demands and promote the real economy. Further, it should actively cope with international challenges, and prevent and resolve risks and potential problems in a bid to achieve stable social expectations,” he added.

The US retail sales in June rose 0.5% from May as households boosted purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods, cementing expectations for robust economic growth in the second quarter. This followed a month-on-month growth of 1.3% in May after an upward adjustment, the biggest gain since September 2017. 

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales were unchanged last month after an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in May. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP.

In addition to solid retail sales data, a narrowing trade deficit in April and May also supported expectations of a strong US GDP in the second quarter.

Day ahead

The key development today is the release of US industrial production data for June.

 

Key Words:  Macroeconomics 

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Macro Roundup (Jul 17)

Data Analysis 09:04:19AM Jul 17, 2018 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jul 17 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

Base metals dipped for the most part on slower growth of China's economy in the second quarter. LME zinc led the losses and closed 4.2% lower, nickel fell 2.4%, lead declined over 2%, tin dropped 1.5%, and copper edged down. Aluminium, however, gained over 1%. SHFE metals moved in line with their LME counterparts with zinc slumping 2.8%.

China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 6.7% in April-June, down from 6.8% in the first quarter and in line with forecast. Its GDP in the first half of the year grew 6.8% year on year, up from the expected 6.7% and flat from the growth rate during the same period in 2017. 

In June, the value added by industrial enterprises above a designated size was up 6% year on year, lower from expected 6.5% and May's gain of 6.8%. The year-on-year growth from January to June stood at 6.7%, 0.2 percentage point lower from last year.

Its retail sales of consumer goods grew 9% year on year in June, accelerating from the 8.5% rise seen in May. In the first half of the year, the retail sales expanded 9.4% year on year to reach 18 trillion yuan, compared with a 9.5% growth the same period last year.

Investment in fixed assets in urban area rose 6% year on year during January-June, but the growth ratio fell 0.1 percentage point compared to a year ago.

"The national economy in the first half of 2018 has continued to experience stable performance and improved momentum. Favourable conditions supporting high-quality growth have increased, creating a solid foundation for achieving the major economic and social development goals for this year,” according to a spokesperson for China’s National Bureau of Statistics.

“However, uncertainties in the international environment have been increasing, and the structural readjustment in China has entered a crucial stage. China must adhere to the supply-side structural reform, expand effective demands and promote the real economy. Further, it should actively cope with international challenges, and prevent and resolve risks and potential problems in a bid to achieve stable social expectations,” he added.

The US retail sales in June rose 0.5% from May as households boosted purchases of automobiles and a range of other goods, cementing expectations for robust economic growth in the second quarter. This followed a month-on-month growth of 1.3% in May after an upward adjustment, the biggest gain since September 2017. 

Excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, retail sales were unchanged last month after an upwardly revised 0.8% increase in May. These so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of GDP.

In addition to solid retail sales data, a narrowing trade deficit in April and May also supported expectations of a strong US GDP in the second quarter.

Day ahead

The key development today is the release of US industrial production data for June.

 

Key Words:  Macroeconomics