Macro Roundup (Jul 6)

Data Analysis 09:06:45AM Jul 06, 2018 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jul 6 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar fell to a three-week low ahead of the tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports, while the euro strengthened.

Base metals mostly ceased their downward trend but remained weak. LME copper and aluminium lost over 1%, tin and zinc inched down, while lead rebounded just over 1%, and nickel went up slightly. SHFE nickel gained 0.76%, aluminium and lead edged up, while copper fell 0.79%, and zinc and tin closed slightly lower. 

The US private sector employment grew by 177,000 in June, lower than the expected 190,000 and 189,000 in May, according to the ADP employment report.

"Business' number one problem is finding qualified workers. At the current pace of job growth, if sustained, this problem is set to worsen. These labour shortages will only intensify across all industries and company sizes," according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

The US initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended June 30, higher from the expected 225,000. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid also rose higher from expectation to stand at 1.74 million on the week, compared with the previous 1.71 million. 

Some economists blamed the rise in claims on automobile manufacturers shutting down assembly lines for annual retooling.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 2,250 to 224,500 last week.

The non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose 0.5 from May to 59.1 in June. This went up from the expected 58.3 and marked the highest level in four months, suggesting an expanding services industry, which accounts for 90% of the US economy. 

From the start of this year, a $1.5 trillion tax cut package supported economic growth and boosted demand from companies and individuals. However, the Trump administration's tariffs on its major trading partners pose potential risks.

Inventories of US crude oil during the week ended June 29 unexpectedly jumped by 1.25 million barrels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline inventories shrank while refined oil stocks grew on the week.

Day ahead

Key factors to watch today include the US non-farm employment data in June and its trade balance in May. 

 

Key Words:  Macroeconomics  

Macro Roundup (Jul 6)

Data Analysis 09:06:45AM Jul 06, 2018 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, Jul 6 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar fell to a three-week low ahead of the tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports, while the euro strengthened.

Base metals mostly ceased their downward trend but remained weak. LME copper and aluminium lost over 1%, tin and zinc inched down, while lead rebounded just over 1%, and nickel went up slightly. SHFE nickel gained 0.76%, aluminium and lead edged up, while copper fell 0.79%, and zinc and tin closed slightly lower. 

The US private sector employment grew by 177,000 in June, lower than the expected 190,000 and 189,000 in May, according to the ADP employment report.

"Business' number one problem is finding qualified workers. At the current pace of job growth, if sustained, this problem is set to worsen. These labour shortages will only intensify across all industries and company sizes," according to Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics.

The US initial claims for unemployment benefits increased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 231,000 for the week ended June 30, higher from the expected 225,000. The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid also rose higher from expectation to stand at 1.74 million on the week, compared with the previous 1.71 million. 

Some economists blamed the rise in claims on automobile manufacturers shutting down assembly lines for annual retooling.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labour market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 2,250 to 224,500 last week.

The non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose 0.5 from May to 59.1 in June. This went up from the expected 58.3 and marked the highest level in four months, suggesting an expanding services industry, which accounts for 90% of the US economy. 

From the start of this year, a $1.5 trillion tax cut package supported economic growth and boosted demand from companies and individuals. However, the Trump administration's tariffs on its major trading partners pose potential risks.

Inventories of US crude oil during the week ended June 29 unexpectedly jumped by 1.25 million barrels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline inventories shrank while refined oil stocks grew on the week.

Day ahead

Key factors to watch today include the US non-farm employment data in June and its trade balance in May. 

 

Key Words:  Macroeconomics