SHANGHAI, Jul 3 (SMM) – 

Copper: LME copper broke support at the 60-week moving average last night to a low of $6,519/mt as US dollar jumped on robust manufacturing data. It recovered part of the losses to close at $6,571/mt, down $48/mt from the previous trading day. We see it test support at $6,500/mt in the short run with trading range today at $6,520-6,580/mt. The SHFE 1808 contract received strong support at 51,000 yuan/mt after being dragged down by weak LME copper overnight. The contract is seen hovering at 51,000-51,500 yuan/mt today with spot discount narrowing to 110-50 yuan/mt. 

Aluminium: LME aluminium tested support at the Bollinger lower bands last night and touched a low of $2,098/mt near closing. It is likely to trade at $2,095-2,125/mt today. The SHFE 1808 contract fell slower than its LME counterpart last night and closed at 13,965 yuan/mt when investors covered their shorts. However, the contract is expected to trade at 13,850-14,020 yuan/mt with spot discounts at 90-50 yuan/mt today amid pessimistic outlook on macroeconomy and fundamentals.

Zinc: LME zinc tested pressure at the five-day moving average for three times during the European trading session overnight, but failed and dipped to close at $2,827.5/mt. It is expected to trade weakly today at $2,800-2,850/mt. The SHFE 1808 contract inched up 20 yuan/mt to close at 23,080 yuan/mt last night on declining domestic inventory. However, given a weak LME zinc and pressure from shorts, the contract is unlikely to stand firm above 23,000 yuan/mt today. Trading range today is seen at 22,750-23,200 yuan/mt. 

Nickel: LME nickel led the loss among base metals last night on a strengthened US dollar and intensified worries over a global trade war. It closed at $14,565/mt, after hitting a low of $14,525/mt, with open interests reducing 609 lots to 250,000 lots. It is seen trading at $14,500-14,900/mt today with pressure at $15,000/mt level. The SHFE 1809 contract met resistance at 116,000 yuan/mt overnight and traded weakly below the daily moving average, closing at 115,330 yuan/mt. As affected nickel pig iron output is set to resume gradually and demand from stainless steel slows down, the contract is likely to trade with pressure in the short run. Trading range during the day is expected at 114,600-116,500 yuan/mt with spot prices at 115,000-116,600 yuan/mt. 

Lead: LME lead continued to trade rangebound at the $2,400/mt level overnight. As shorts and longs diverge, it is likely to move in a wide range today. The SHFE 1808 contract came off to the daily moving average after hitting a high of 20,235 yuan/mt overnight as speculators were keen to leave at highs. With support at the 20-day moving average, the contract is likely to consolidate between the five- and 10-day moving averages today.

Tin: LME tin inched up overnight but remained under the five-day moving average. It is likely to continue its rangebound pattern today with resistance at the $20,000/mt level. The SHFE 1809 contract continued to hover around the 10-day moving average last night. We see limited upward momentum for it given the low consumption season in China. The contract is likely to remain rangebound today with resistance at the 146,000 yuan/mt level.