SMM Morning Comments (Jul 2)

Published: Jul 2, 2018 09:57

Save

SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, Jul 2 (SMM) –

Copper: LME copper met resistance at the five-day moving average last Friday night with support at $6,600/mt as final labour negotiation is expected in July at the world's largest copper mine, Escondida, in Chile. Trading range is set to be $6,590-6,640/mt today with the SHFE 1808 contract at 51,000-51,500 yuan/mt amid slack season. Spot discounts are expected to be narrower to 180-140 yuan/mt today.

Aluminium: LME aluminium broke the support at $2,150/mt and dipped to a low of $2,130/mt last Friday night as most base metals traded weakly. However, it is likely to cease the downward trend today due to expectations of strong purchasing managers’ index (PMI) from several countries. Trading range today is expected at $2,122-2,150/mt. The SHFE 1808 contract is likely to test support at 14,000 yuan/mt as it was depressed to a low of 14,045 yuan/mt last Friday night with increasing short positions. As domestic inventory declined slower and consumption weakened on the month, the contract is seen trading at 14,000-14,200 yuan/mt today with spot discount at 80-40 yuan/mt.

Zinc: LME zinc fell last Friday and lost some gains made in the previous days. With strong resistance at the $2,900/mt level, we expect it to trade at $2,840-2,890/mt today. The weak LME zinc dragged its SHFE counterpart down to close at 23,045 yuan/mt last Friday. But the 1808 zinc contract saw support from the shrinking inventory across Shanghai, Guangdong and Tianjin. It is likely to consolidate at 22,900-23,350 yuan/mt today.

Nickel: LME nickel rose and broke the $15,000/mt level last Friday, while the SHFE 1809 contract traded at 116,400-117,600 yuan/mt and above several moving averages. We expect LME nickel to trade at $14,900-15,000/mt today with the SHFE 1809 contract at 117,200-118,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 117,400-118,200 yuan/mt.

Lead: LME lead will face continued pressure from shorts today as it was dragged down for four consecutive trading days. Last Friday night, it was depressed to close at $2,409/mt after rising to a high of $2,443/mt. The SHFE 1808 contract also traded weakly and closed at a low of 20,370 yuan/mt. We see it testing support at the five-day moving average today.

Tin: LME tin inched up to close at $19,675/mt last Friday night but with pressure at $20,000/mt due to rising inventory. Support is seen at $19,300/mt today. The SHFE 1809 contract gained 850 yuan/mt to close above the five-day moving average, but we see limited upward momentum due to its weak LME counterpart. Pressure is seen at 145,500 yuan/mt.

Morning comments Futures movement

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

Feb 6, 2026 23:56

"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"

Premier Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to study policy measures for promoting effective investment. The meeting noted that promoting effective investment plays an important role in stabilizing economic growth and strengthening momentum for development. It is necessary to innovate and improve policy measures, and intensify efforts to enhance the efficiency of utilizing funds such as central budget investments, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new-type policy-based financial instruments. In conjunction with formulating and implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan

Feb 6, 2026 23:56

Feb 6, 2026 23:54

"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...

Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we will thoroughly implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the plenary sessions of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy, strengthen top-level design, build computing power interconnection nodes oriented toward national hub periods, major strategic regions, and key industries, establish a system of computing power interconnection nodes, improve the efficiency and service level of public computing power resources, and promote high-quality development of computing power.

Feb 6, 2026 23:54

Feb 6, 2026 23:47

Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions

After intensive indirect consultations, the new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US in Muscat, the capital of Oman, has achieved phased progress. It is reported that during this round of talks, the Iranian and US delegations did not meet directly. Instead, Omani Foreign Minister Badr acted as an intermediary, conveying a series of core proposals, strategic concerns, and policy positions to the other side. The atmosphere at the talks was tense yet efficient. According to preliminary on-site assessments, although both sides continue to negotiate over specific terms, they have reached a consensus on the key objective of "continuing dialogue."

Feb 6, 2026 23:47