SMM Evening Comments (Jun 28)

SHANGHAI, Jun 28 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals futures rose across the board on Thursday June 28 except for SHFE tin. Lead led the gains again with a rise of nearly 3%. Zinc went up nearly 1.5%, nickel rose over 1%, while aluminium and copper inched up.

The ferrous complex mostly gained, except for coking coal. Rebar, coke, and hot-rolled coil rose over 1%. Iron ore went up 0.86%.

Copper: The SHFE 1808 contract mostly hovered around 51,700 yuan/mt during the morning trading session, but saw pressure at the 60-day moving average after it touched a high of 51,810 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, the contract was depressed to a low of 51,560 yuan/mt as longs exited near closing. It closed 60 yuan/mt higher on the day at 51,640 yuan/mt, with open interests reducing 6,342 lots to 173,000 lots. We expect it to maintain the rangebound trend around 51,500 yuan/mt in the short run, with continued pressure at the 60-day moving average. Investors would take guidance tonight from the US gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter and its weekly jobless claims.

Aluminium: SHFE aluminium fell in the morning as shorts entered the market, touching a low of 14,155 yuan/mt. We expect the contract to stay weakly rangebound in the short term.

Zinc: The SHFE 1808 contract lost nearly half of the gains of last night as declined long positions dragged the contract down to close at 23,110 yuan/mt. However, this was 195 yuan/mt higher from the previous trading day. The 1808 contract is likely to test support at 23,000 yuan/mt as pessimistic sentiment dominated the market. 

Nickel: The SHFE 1809 contract broke resistance at 117,000 yuan/mt before noon as investors added their long bets amid slightly eased tension between Washing and Beijing. It then consolidated around 116,950 yuan/mt and closed 1,350 yuan/mt higher from Wednesday at 116,220 yuan/mt. Capital inflows registered 252 million yuan during the day, topping SHFE base metals contracts. It is expected to hover at around 115,000-117,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Lead: The SHFE 1808 contract registered a third consecutive day of increase and closed at 20,595 yuan/mt, up 585 yuan/mt from the previous day. Further upward room is expected tonight, but investors would be cautious about a correction.

Tin: The SHFE 1809 contract edged down today amid rising base metals due to its weakening LME counterpart and oversupply in the domestic market. The contract fell from a high of 145,000 yuan/mt in the afternoon to close at 144,160 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan/mt from Wednesday. Support is seen at 143,000 yuan/mt in the short term.