Macro Roundup (Jun 22)

SHANGHAI, Jun 22 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar index slipped and closed at 94.85 overnight with weaker-than-expected US economic indicators. US treasury yields also fell.

LME metals saw mixed trading. LME zinc dropped over 2% and fell to the lowest since August 2017. Lead and tin dipped while nickel and aluminium nudged up. With worries over the US-China trade war, copper continued to hover at a three-week low though it closed 0.23% higher.

SHFE metals fell for the most part except for aluminium and nickel. Zinc fell close to 2% and lead dropped over 1%.

US initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended June 16, compared with the expected 220,000. Claims have now declined for four weeks in a row, pointing to a further tightening of the labour market.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, a better measure of the labour market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, dropped 4,000 to 221,000 last week.

The labour market is viewed as being near or at full employment, with the unemployment rate at an 18-year low of 3.8%.

The manufacturing business outlook survey from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve showed a business conditions index reading of 19.9 in June, the lowest since November 2016. This compared with 34.4 in May. A positive reading indicates growth in manufacturing in the region.

In seasonally-adjusted terms, the Federal Housing Finance Agency's (FHFA) house price index, which is based on data from home purchase mortgages bought or securitised by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac, increased by 0.1% month on month in April, compared with the expected 0.5% and March’s 0.2% after revision. On a yearly basis, the index rose 6.4%, lower than the previous 6.7%.

Eurozone consumer confidence fell more than expected to -0.5 in the preliminary reading for June, the lowest since October last year. "The end to negative surprises for eurozone data has yet to happen," ING analysts noted.

Day ahead

The key factor to watch today is the preliminary June reading of the Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for eurozone and the US.