SMM Evening Comments (Jun 21)

Published: Jun 21, 2018 17:59 (GMT+8)

Save

SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Jun 21 (SMM) – SHFE nickel outperformed its nonferrous counterparts on Thursday June 21 with a gain of 1.7%. Tin inched up 0.19% and aluminium nudged up 0.04%. Copper dipped 0.12%, zinc and lead lost 0.60% and 0.68%, respectively.

The ferrous complex saw mixed trading. Coke jumped 1.3%, iron ore edged up 0.22% while hot-rolled coil dipped 0.18% and rebar lost 0.4%. Coking coal dropped 1.7%.

Copper: As shorts cut their positions and as longs added their positions, the SHFE 1808 contract surged to a high of 51,980 yuan/mt. With pressure at the 40-day moving average, the contract failed to extend its gains and consolidated at high levels. As speculative longs took profit and left, the contract fell to the 51,720 yuan/mt level and found some support. It then hovered around the 51,800 yuan/mt level till closing. Market jitters slightly eased from the previous day. The SHFE 1808 contract is likely to trade rangebound in the short term if trade disputes between the US and China do not exacerbate.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1808 contract hovered at 14,225 yuan/mt after it reached a high of 14,270 yuan/mt as longs increased. It closed at 14,185 yuan/mt, up from Wednesday. However, we see downward room for the contract in the low season downstream and declining costs at producers. It is likely to test support at 14,000 yuan/mt in the short term.

Zinc: With pressure from shorts, the SHFE 1808 contract tested support at the Bollinger lower bands today. It fell below the daily moving average and traded rangebound at 23,360 yuan/mt after it hit a high of 23,575 yuan/mt. With an oversupplied domestic spot market and as LME zinc fell to a low from last July, the contract is expected to open at lows tonight and test support at 23,000 yuan/mt.

Nickel: The SHFE 1809 contract climbed all the way up to a high of 116,220 yuan/mt after opening as investors added their longs amid improved sentiment. Sentiment improved as investories shrank and demand from downstream stainless steel plants grew. The contract hovered at 115,220 yuan/mt in the afternoon as the US dollar gained. With a capital inflow of 184 million yuan during the day, the contract is expected to consolidate at highs tonight. Investors would take more cues tonight from the US initial jobless claims over the week ended June 16.

Lead: The SHFE 1807 contract plunged to a low of 19,850 yuan/mt after it surged to a high of 20,050 yuan/mt as investors’ sentiment cooled. It closed at 19,855 yuan/mt with open interests down 2,626 lots to 53,126 lots. We see it testing support at 19,800 yuan/mt in the short run. Investors would take guidance from the US dollar tonight.

Tin: A stronger LME tin buoyed the SHFE 1809 contract to a high of 147,300 yuan/mt initially before it fell. It met pressure at the five-day moving average and closed at 145,740 yuan/mt, down 280 yuan/mt from Wednesday. It is likely to remain trading rangebound in the short term with resistance.

Evening comments Futures movement

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

22 hours ago

Asante gains more time to arrange US$100 million for Ghana mines

[SMM Gold Flash] On 30th September 2026, Asante Gold announced that its senior lenders, stream purchaser and hedge counterparty had agreed to extend its deadline for securing at least US$100 million in new funding to 31 October. The deadline for a cost-to-complete certificate moved to 31 March 2027. Asante said it had agreed funding terms with Fujairah Holding, which requested more time for internal approvals. Final approval and signed funding agreements remain outstanding. The extensions give Asante more time to address financing requirements affecting its operating Bibiani and Chirano gold mines in Ghana. They do not resolve the funding requirement: completion of the proposed package is the next material milestone.

22 hours ago

Early construction begins at Marathon copper–palladium project

[SMM PGM Flash] Generation Mining has begun early construction at its Marathon copper–palladium project in northwestern Ontario. Work started after the company posted a C$6.5 million bond covering construction-phase site rehabilitation. Its wider early-works programme is planned to include access-road upgrades, water-management structures and temporary power through late 2026 and into 2027. The start moves a potential North American palladium and platinum source into physical site work. Generation’s feasibility study estimates about 2.16 million payable ounces of palladium and 488,000 ounces of platinum over a 13-year mine life; these are forecasts, not production. The company also expects to make about C$30 million in initial equipment payments, subject to final contracts and approvals.

22 hours ago

Oct 02, 2026 15:49 (GMT+8)

Ghana draft bill proposes state special share and shorter mining leases

[SMM Gold Flash] A draft mining bill reviewed by Reuters on 30 September would let Ghana’s mines minister require companies to issue the state a free special share with consent rights over major transactions. It would retain the existing 10% free-carried state interest and limit mining leases to 15 years or the projected mine life, whichever is shorter. The draft would also allow future rules requiring local processing and restricting exports of unprocessed concentrates. None of these proposals has been enacted; Reuters did not establish when the draft was prepared. For Ghana’s gold miners, the proposed rights and shorter leases could affect financing, valuations and renewal decisions. Under the draft, existing rights holders seeking renewal would receive priority consideration for equivalent licences. Mining companies expect further consultation before parliamentary debate, Reuters reported. The final wording and timing remain uncertain.

Oct 02, 2026 15:49 (GMT+8)