Macro Roundup (Jun 20)

SHANGHAI, Jun 20 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar index registered a fresh high in 11 months on Tuesday and closed at 94.98 overnight, up 0.25%.

This led base metals futures to fall across the board, except for SHFE tin. LME copper, aluminium, zinc dropped over 2%, nickel slid close to 2%, tin and lead fell close to 1%.

LME copper tumbled to a three-week low on growing worries over the simmering trade war between Washington and Beijing as well as demand in China. SHFE copper and aluminium edged down over 1%, zinc, lead, nickel slipped close to 1%.

The eurozone’s current account balance fell to 28.4 billion euros in April after seasonal adjustment, from 32.8 billion euros in March. The surplus stood at 26.2 billion euros in April before seasonal adjustment.

European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi said on Tuesday in Sintra, Portugal that “We will remain patient in determining the timing of the first rate rise and will take a gradual approach to adjusting policy thereafter”.

“The path of very short-term interest rates that is implicit in the term structure of today’s money market interest rates broadly reflects these principles,” he said.

He added that downside risks include the threat of increased global protectionism, rising oil prices and the possibility of persistent heightened financial market volatility.

US home construction surged to near an 11-year high in May, driven by an acceleration in both single-family and multi-family home construction. But a second straight monthly drop in permits suggested that housing market activity will remain moderate. Single-family home construction rose in the north-east and mid-west, but fell in the south and west.

Housing starts jumped 5% to an annual rate of 1.35 million units in May, the highest level since July 2007. Building permits fell 4.6% to a rate of 1.30 million units, the lowest since September 2017.

US crude oil inventories during the week ended June 15 shrank 3.02 million barrels after increasing 833,000 barrels in the previous week, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute (API). API gasoline inventories for the week unexpectedly rose by 2.11 million barrels after increasing 2.33 million barrels a week ago.

Day ahead

Key factors to watch today include the US current account for the first quarter, existing homes sales in May, oil inventory data for the week ended June 15 from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).