SMM Evening Comments (Jun 15)

SHANGHAI, Jun 15 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals futures dipped across the board on Friday June 15 as SHFE aluminium led the loss and closed over 1.8% lower. Lead slumped over 1.1%, zinc fell over 1%, and nickel dipped 0.82%. Tin and copper inched down.

Meanwhile, the ferrous metals mostly rose. Coke jumped over 1.6%, rebar gained 0.52%, coking coal went up 0.36%, and iron ore rose 0.32%. Hot-rolled coil went flat. 

Copper: The SHFE 1808 contract hovered around 53,500 yuan/mt during the day. It climbed up above the daily moving average in the afternoon to a high of 53,670 yuan/mt, but closed lower at 53,660 yuan/mt, down 140 yuan/mt from Thursday. Open interests declined 5,366 lots to 210,000 lots. It is expected to test support at the 10-day moving average in the short term. Tonight, investors would look for cues from the US manufacturing and industrial productions in May.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1808 contract traded weakly today to close at 14,410 yuan/mt, 265 yuan/mt lower from Thursday as investors added their short positions. The contract is expected to trade at 14,200-14,500 yuan/mt next week as domestic aluminium operating capacity will rise further while demand remains weak. 

Zinc: The SHFE 1808 contract rebounded twice after hitting a low of 24,080 yuan/mt in the afternoon. It dipped to between the 10- and 60-day moving averages during the day with pressure from shorts. The 1806 contract was delivered at a settlement price of 24,170 yuan/mt. Delivery volume registered at 15,475 mt. 

Nickel: The SHFE 1809 contract climbed up during the day above the daily moving average as domestic inventory declined with import window closed. It touched a high of 116,450 yuan/mt but closed 960 yuan/mt lower at 115,770 yuan/mt as base metals fell across the board. As the KDJ indicators expanded downwards and the MACD green line lengthened, the contract is expected to trade weakly in the near term. Investors would take guidance tonight from the US consumer confidence in June surveyed by the University of Michigan. 

Lead: The SHFE 1807 contract rebounded to above the daily moving average with support from longs after it dipped to a low of 20,110 yuan/mt. The contract closed at 20,210 yuan/mt, down 230 yuan/mt from the previous day, with open interests reducing 2,440 lots to 66,280 lots. The 1806 contract was delivered today with settlement price at 20,375 yuan/mt and delivery volume at 9,275 mt. 

Tin: The SHFE 1809 contract hovered at lows around 147,850 yuan/mt and inched down to close at 147,340 yuan/mt. It is likely to face continued pressure in the short term. Support will be at 146,000 yuan/mt.