SMM Evening Comments (Jun 12)

SHANGHAI, Jun 12 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals mostly traded weakly on Tuesday June 12. SHFE nickel led losses and closed 0.61% lower. Copper dipped 0.52%. Tin and aluminium inched down, while zinc and lead went up slightly. 

The ferrous complex rose across the board with coke leading the gains with a surge of nearly 4%. Coking coal jumped nearly 3%, rebar gained almost 2%, hot-rolled coil rose over 1%, and iron ore grew nearly 1%.

Copper: The SHFE 1808 contract inched down to close at 53,970 yuan/mt with open interests down 2,412 lots to 222,000 lots as worries eased over a strike at the Escondida mine in Chile. As the US dollar is likely to rebound this week on a potential hike in interest rates by the Fed, copper price may dip further in the short run. Tonight, investors would look for more cues from the US consumer price index (CPI) in May. 

Aluminium: With a lack of strong support, the SHFE 1808 contract traded rangebound at 14,980-14,840 yuan/mt during the day. Open interests of SHFE aluminium contracts rose 5,308 lots to 704,848 lots as shorts increased. We expect the SHFE 1808 contract to trade weakly in the short term. 

Zinc: Buoyed by its LME counterpart, the SHFE 1808 contract reached a high of 24,550 yuan/mt at closing with open interestup 14,692 lots to 198,000 lots. Despite weak fundamentals in the domestic market, the contract is likely to test support at 24,500 yuan/mt tonight with strong support from long positions. 

Nickel: The SHFE 1809 contract hovered below the daily moving average with pressure at the 10-day moving average after it touched a high of 115,970 yuan/mt as the US dollar weakened. As the KDJ indicators expanded downwards and the longer-term moving average of MACD shortened, the contract is likely to see downward room tonight. 

Lead: The SHFE 1807 contract broke pressure at the five-day moving average and climbed up to close at 20,580 yuan/mt. Its open interests registered a fifth consecutive day of decreases by 1,288 lots to 75,714 lots. The contract will test support at the five-day moving average tonight.

Tin: As investors cut their longs, the SHFE 1809 contract hovered at 151,700-152,300 yuan/mt during the day. It is likely to weaken further in the short term with support at 150,000 yuan/mt.