SMM Morning Comments (Jun 11)

SHANGHAI, Jun 11 (SMM) –

Copper: LME copper hit a high of $7,333/mt last Friday as the SHFE inventories fell and as China’s May imports of unwrought copper and copper products surged 22% year on year. It then edged down slightly before closure. The SHFE 1808 contract was bolstered by longs to close at 54,420 yuan/mt from a low of 54,210 yuan/mt. Open interest of SHFE copper rose over 14,000 lots to 787,000 lots. Investors would watch out for the labour negotiations at Escondida in Chile. LME copper is likely to trade at $7,290-7,350/mt today, while the SHFE 1808 contract is likely to trade at 54,100-54,700 yuan/mt. Spot discounts are seen at 70-10 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: LME aluminium returned to the five- and 40- day moving averages and is expected to trade at $2,290-2,340/mt today. The SHFE 1808 contract became the most traded contract last Friday night. The contract hit a high of 14,970 yuan/mt but met strong resistance at the 15,000 yuan/mt level. It then traded rangebound and touched a low of 14,875 yuan/mt before closure as some investors exited the market. We expect it to trade at 14,800-15000 yuan/mt today with spot discounts at 50-10 yuan/mt.

Zinc: As longs flooded into the market during the European trading hours last Friday, LME zinc climbed up and broke the resistance at $3,200/mt. It then came off and traded rangebound at $3,192-3,203/mt. We expect it to trade at $3,165-3,215/mt today. The SHFE 1808 contract consolidated around 24,620 yuan/mt last Friday night after hitting a high of 24,650 yuan/mt. We expect it to trade at 24,200-24,650 yuan/mt today.

Nickel: LME nickel received support at the 10-day moving average after dipping to a low of $15,425/mt. It returned back to the daily moving average and traded around $15,450/mt as the US dollar inched down. The SHFE 1809 contract mostly hovered around the daily moving average last Friday night and closed at 116,180 yuan/mt. As the US dollar is likely to gained support from the US-North Korea summit and the Federal Reserve’s resolution on interest rate, the trading range of the contract is expected to move downwards at 114,600-116,400 yuan/mt today. Spot prices are seen at 114,100-115,900 yuan/mt.

Lead: LME lead was dragged down by shorts to a low of $2,466/mt during the European trading hours last Friday. It then rapidly climbed up but was dragged down again before closure. We see its upward momentum being suppressed and expect it to test the support at the 10-day moving average today. The SHFE 1807 contract hovered around the daily moving average after surging to a high of 20,530 yuan/mt last Friday night. We expect it to test the pressure at the five-day moving average today.

Tin: LME tin rebounded after dipping to a low of $21,040/mt last Friday night as the US dollar fell from highs. It closed slightly lower from the previous day at $21,170/mt. Resistance will be at $21,300/mt in the short term. The SHFE 1809 contract mostly traded at the five- and 10-day moving averages. It is likely to remain rangebound today.

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