SMM Evening Comments (Jun 5)

Published: Jun 5, 2018 17:29

Save

SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Jun 5 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals saw mixed trading on Tuesday June 5. SHFE lead led the gains and closed nearly 3.6% higher, copper rose nearly 1%, and zinc inched up. Tin fell over 1%, nickel dipped, while aluminium went flat.

In the ferrous market, iron ore jumped over 1.7%, rebar and hot-rolled coil went up slightly, while coke fell over 1% and coking coal dipped 0.76%.

Copper: The SHFE 1807 contract rebounded with support from longs after it fell to a low of 51,890 yuan/mt. It closed at a high of 52,290 yuan/mt with open interests increasing 11,000 lots to 177,000 lots. Due to worries of a potentially tight supply of copper, the contract is expected to test pressure above 52,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1807 contract mostly hovered in a narrow range at the five-day moving average, and closed at 14,650 yuan/mt. The contract is expected to consolidate at current levels in the short term and to weaken in the mid term as downstream consumption slows down in June and domestic prices of alumina are likely to dip.

Zinc: As pressure from shorts eased, the SHFE 1807 contract surged to a high of 24,310 yuan/mt near closing. It stood firm above the 60-day moving average today with upward momentum expected in the short term. As its LME counterpart surged today during the European trading session, the contract is set to test pressure at the Bollinger upper bands tonight with support at the 60-day moving average.

Nickel: With pressure from shorts, the SHFE 1807 contract dipped to a low of 115,550 yuan/mt and hovered at the daily moving average in the afternoon. The contract closed 190 yuan/mt lower from Monday at 116,600 yuan/mt with open interests down 23,000 lots to 270,000 lots. As the KDJ indicators expanded downwards and the longer-term moving average of the MACD shortened, the contract is expected to trade weakly tonight.

Lead: Buoyed by longs, the SHFE 1807 contract closed nearly 3.6% higher at 20,600 yuan/mt. It touched 20,680 yuan/mt, a record high since November 2016. Open interests surged 18,576 lots to 96,968 lots. We see strong momentum driving the contract up to further gains tonight.

Tin: As investors cut their longs, the SHFE 1809 contract traded weakly and dipped to a low of 150,700 yuan/mt. Investors will take guidance from LME tin and macroeconomic developments tonight.

For editorial queries, please contact Daisy Tseng at daisy@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

Evening comments Futures movement

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

22 hours ago

ARM to Invest $840M in Bokoni Platinum Restart, Raising Cash Flow Concerns Despite Market Potential

African Rainbow Minerals (ARM) plans to reopen Bokoni Platinum in South Africa with R15.2 billion in investment over seven years, targeting annual PGM production of up to 400,000 ounces from around 2030. The project follows a new feasibility study and a previous R2.2 billion impairment in ARM’s 2025 financial year. The restart has raised investor concerns over capital intensity and near-term cash generation, particularly if ARM also proceeds with the Two Rivers Merensky project. RMB Morgan Stanley estimates that funding both projects could push ARM into negative free cash flow for two to three years. ARM shares reportedly fell sharply following the Bokoni announcement. However, the project could benefit from improving PGM market fundamentals. South African PGM production is declining while renewed automotive demand, supported by slower-than-expected EV adoption, could strengthen prices. ARM entered the project with a strong balance sheet, including R9.5 billion in net cash at end-June. Bokoni's restart could add significant future PGM supply, but its high capital requirements and challenging mining history create execution and cash-flow risks for ARM.

22 hours ago

Aug 7, 2026 19:12

AI Data Centre Demand Could Widen PGM Deficits

[SMM Express] AI-driven data centre expansion is emerging as a new source of platinum group metals (PGMs) demand that could further tighten markets already facing supply deficits. Valterra Platinum reportedly estimates AI-linked data centre demand for PGMs at 200,000–400,000 ounces, with potential to increase fivefold by 2030. The additional demand is particularly relevant for platinum and ruthenium, which are already forecast to remain in deficit in 2026. Platinum's full-year deficit forecast has been raised to 297,000 ounces, while above-ground stocks are expected to fall below three months of global demand cover by year-end. Meanwhile, hybrid vehicle growth is helping sustain automotive PGM demand despite rising battery-electric vehicle adoption. However, palladium remains an exception, with its weaker performance linked largely to an unresolved US trade dispute rather than AI-related demand.

Aug 7, 2026 19:12

Aug 7, 2026 16:53

Platinum-Based Fuel Cell Technology Could Support Data Centre Power Demand

Researchers at Washington University in St. Louis and partner institutions have developed a new platinum-cobalt catalyst design that could improve the durability and efficiency of low-temperature fuel cells, potentially supporting power generation for data centres. The technology uses platinum-cobalt nanoparticles confined within hollow carbon nanochannels, helping prevent the nanoparticles from clumping or degrading during operation. Platinum is widely used as a fuel-cell catalyst because of its high catalytic performance but its cost remains a key challenge. Accordingly, the new catalyst maintained around 85% of its performance during testing designed to simulate 25,000 hours of operation. The development could have implications for platinum demand if fuel cells become more widely adopted for distributed power generation. This is particularly relevant as data-centre electricity consumption is expected to rise significantly with growing digital and AI infrastructure. However, further development and commercial validation will be required before large-scale deployment.

Aug 7, 2026 16:53