SMM Evening Comments (Jun 5)

Published: Jun 5, 2018 17:29

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SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Jun 5 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals saw mixed trading on Tuesday June 5. SHFE lead led the gains and closed nearly 3.6% higher, copper rose nearly 1%, and zinc inched up. Tin fell over 1%, nickel dipped, while aluminium went flat.

In the ferrous market, iron ore jumped over 1.7%, rebar and hot-rolled coil went up slightly, while coke fell over 1% and coking coal dipped 0.76%.

Copper: The SHFE 1807 contract rebounded with support from longs after it fell to a low of 51,890 yuan/mt. It closed at a high of 52,290 yuan/mt with open interests increasing 11,000 lots to 177,000 lots. Due to worries of a potentially tight supply of copper, the contract is expected to test pressure above 52,000 yuan/mt tonight.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1807 contract mostly hovered in a narrow range at the five-day moving average, and closed at 14,650 yuan/mt. The contract is expected to consolidate at current levels in the short term and to weaken in the mid term as downstream consumption slows down in June and domestic prices of alumina are likely to dip.

Zinc: As pressure from shorts eased, the SHFE 1807 contract surged to a high of 24,310 yuan/mt near closing. It stood firm above the 60-day moving average today with upward momentum expected in the short term. As its LME counterpart surged today during the European trading session, the contract is set to test pressure at the Bollinger upper bands tonight with support at the 60-day moving average.

Nickel: With pressure from shorts, the SHFE 1807 contract dipped to a low of 115,550 yuan/mt and hovered at the daily moving average in the afternoon. The contract closed 190 yuan/mt lower from Monday at 116,600 yuan/mt with open interests down 23,000 lots to 270,000 lots. As the KDJ indicators expanded downwards and the longer-term moving average of the MACD shortened, the contract is expected to trade weakly tonight.

Lead: Buoyed by longs, the SHFE 1807 contract closed nearly 3.6% higher at 20,600 yuan/mt. It touched 20,680 yuan/mt, a record high since November 2016. Open interests surged 18,576 lots to 96,968 lots. We see strong momentum driving the contract up to further gains tonight.

Tin: As investors cut their longs, the SHFE 1809 contract traded weakly and dipped to a low of 150,700 yuan/mt. Investors will take guidance from LME tin and macroeconomic developments tonight.

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Evening comments Futures movement

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