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SMM Evening Comments (May 25)
May 25,2018 18:47CST
price review forecast
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, May 25 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals, except for SHFE tin, rose across the board on Friday May 25. SHFE nickel led the increases with a gain of 1.8%. SHFE zinc and aluminium gained over 1%, lead and copper inched up,

Most ferrous metals closed higher. Hot-rolled coil rose close to 1%, rebar and coke nudged up. Coking coal and iron ore dipped.

Copper: The SHFE 1807 contract rebounded from a low of 51,510 yuan/mt with resistance at the 51,640 yuan/mt level in the morning. As shorts cut their positions, the contract rose from a low of 51,380 yuan/mt in the afternoon. Technically, the contract now struggles among several moving averages with pressure at the five- and 60-day moving averages. We expect it to continue its rangebound pattern and to try to stand above the 51,500 yuan/mt level tonight.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1807 contract initially fell to a low of 14,730 yuan/mt as longs closed out their positions. It then hit a high of 14,875 yuan/mt as some longs entered the market. Some longs took profits and closed out their positions while some shorts left before the market closed. Today, SHFE aluminium regained some of this week's losses. We see further upward momentum for it as inventories decline. We expect it to rise together with moving averages below next week.

Zinc: As some shorts added their positions, the SHFE 1807 contract initially tumbled to a low of 23,450 yuan/mt. Trading levels rose to 23,600 yuan/mt as shorts reduced their positions. The contract rapidly climbed to a high of 23,700 yuan/mt before closure as shorts cut their positions again. SHFE zinc traded strongly rangebound and broke the pressure at the five-, 10- and 20-day moving averages during the day. We expect it to consolidate tonight.

Nickel: The market was buoyed by news that Jiangsu province had shut down induction furnaces. Longs bolstered the SHFE 1807 contract to hit a three-year high of 111,660 yuan/mt in the morning but the contract fell in the afternoon as longs cut their positions. We expect it to trade strongly rangebound tonight. Market participants can take more cues tonight from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements in a panel discussion in Sweden as well as the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for May.

Tin: As longs significantly closed down their positions, the SHFE 1809 contract fell during the day and touched a low of 146,400 yuan/mt before closure. We expect it to trade rangebound in the short term given a weak LME tin and an oversupply in China’s spot market. We see support at the 145,000 yuan/mt level and resistance at the 148,500 yuan/mt level.

Lead: Longs dragged the SHFE 1807 contract down to a low of 19,955 yuan/mt from a high of 20,225 yuan/mt during the day. We expect it to weaken tonight. 

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Evening Comments

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