SMM Evening Comments (May 21)

Published: May 21, 2018 17:56
SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, May 21 (SMM) – China’s nonferrous metals futures closed higher except for aluminium and nickel on Monday May 21. Lead led the gains with a rise of over 1.4%, zinc grew nearly 1.1%, tin rose almost 0.8%, and copper inched up.

Ferrous metals dropped across the board with iron ore leading the loss and closing 3% lower. Coke fell nearly 2%, hot-rolled coil and rebar lost over 1.8% while coking coal dipped. 

Copper: The SHFE 1807 contract jumped above the daily moving average today and recovered the loss of last Friday with support from longs as the US put its trade war with China on hold. However, the contract faced pressure at 51,500 yuan/mt due to a stronger US dollar. It is likely to test resistance at this level tonight. 

Aluminium: The SHFE 1807 contract rose to a high of 14,860 yuan/mt as domestic inventory dip steadily. However, as both long and short positions were reduced, the contract is expected to trade rangebound tonight. 

Zinc: The SHFE 1807 contract broke its rangebound pattern today as it climbed and touched the 40-day moving average. It rose to a high of 24,080 yuan/mt with open interests growing 7,854 lots to 250,000 lots. As most domestic zinc smelters in north China undergo maintenance in recent weeks, the contract is likely to hover at highs and test resistance at 24,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Nickel: Shorts cutting positions in the morning drove the SHFE 1807 contract up to a high of 109,420 yuan/mt. It then fell to a low of 108,300 yuan/mt as the other side of the market also cut their exposure. It found some support at the 10-day moving average and traded rangebound at 108,500-109,100 yuan/mt. We expect it to continue its rangebound pattern tonight.

Tin: The SHFE 1809 contract rose back to the five- and 10-day moving averages and hit a high of 146,250 yuan/mt today as investors cut their short positions. It is set to test pressure at 147,000 yuan/mt tonight. 

Lead: With support from longs, the SHFE 1806 contract climbed up twice to 19,770 yuan/mt and 19,840 yuan/mt during the day amid optimistic sentiment in the market. The dominant contract moved to 1807 today, which also soared to close at 19,310 yuan/mt, 260 yuan/mt higher from the previous day. The 1807 contract is expected to gain further tonight buoyed by longs. 

 


For editorial queries, please contact Daisy Tseng at daisy@smm.cn 
For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn
Related News
Bezant Targets First Concentrate at Namibia’s Hope & Gorob in September
15 mins ago
Bezant Targets First Concentrate at Namibia’s Hope & Gorob in September
Read More
Bezant Targets First Concentrate at Namibia’s Hope & Gorob in September
Bezant Targets First Concentrate at Namibia’s Hope & Gorob in September
Bezant Resources said development of the Hope & Gorob copper-gold project in Namibia and the associated Tsoaxaub Metals Processing Plant remains in line with the current project schedule, with first run-of-mine ore expected to be processed during September 2026. Subject to completion of the remaining commissioning activities, processing of the first ROM ore is expected to generate the project’s first concentrate. Ore from the first two mine blasts has already been stockpiled and is ready for transport to the processing plant, while Bezant said the stockpiled tonnage exceeded initial projections due to additional ore recovery recorded in the company’s Mineral Inventory. Development work is progressing at both the mine and processing plant. Mine-site camp construction is approximately 75% complete, around 75% of surface infrastructure has been delivered and is being installed, and the full Unitrans mining and haulage fleets are now on site. At the Tsoaxaub plant, Bezant has received the C1 Civils and Structural Completion Certificate, confirming completion of major structural steelwork and civil works, while the C2 Mechanical Completion Certificate is scheduled for completion during September. Electrical drives and instrumentation are around 90% complete, with the cone crusher, flotation equipment, tailings infrastructure and other processing components undergoing final preparation ahead of commissioning. Bezant has also accelerated its review of a Phase II expansion plan, considering current and projected copper, gold and silver prices as well as the potential inclusion of lower-grade mineralisation that had previously been considered sub-economic. The company is evaluating a higher mass-pull operating strategy for the ore sorter that could increase copper recoveries, although potentially at a lower pre-concentrate grade. Based on the current Mineral Inventory, existing JORC (2012) Mineral Resource, planned flotation-plant capacity and the higher mass-pull scenario under consideration, management believes Hope & Gorob has the potential to support an approximately 35-year mine life. Bezant has not yet published a revised economic model incorporating this longer-life scenario. SMM Analysis: The September processing target places Hope & Gorob close to the transition from mine development into initial concentrate production, with ROM ore already stockpiled and key processing infrastructure approaching mechanical completion. The potential 35-year mine life and Phase II expansion remain under technical and economic review and should not yet be treated as a confirmed revised development plan. In the near term, the key milestone to watch will be completion of plant commissioning and confirmation of first concentrate production during September.
15 mins ago
SMM expects overall copper anode operating rate to edge up MoM in September
24 mins ago
SMM expects overall copper anode operating rate to edge up MoM in September
Read More
SMM expects overall copper anode operating rate to edge up MoM in September
SMM expects overall copper anode operating rate to edge up MoM in September
[SMM Copper Anode Flash] SMM expects the overall operating rate of China copper anode enterprises to rebound 1.30 percentage points MoM to 44.11% in September 2026. Among them, primary copper anode enterprises are expected to see their operating rate fall 7.19 percentage points MoM to 57.88% due to maintenance at some enterprises and refining capacity ramp-up; secondary copper anode enterprises are expected to see their operating rate rebound 4.76 percentage points MoM to 38.48%. (Non-captive copper anode only)
24 mins ago
Aug SMM China copper anode operating rate fell to 42.81% MoM
25 mins ago
Aug SMM China copper anode operating rate fell to 42.81% MoM
Read More
Aug SMM China copper anode operating rate fell to 42.81% MoM
Aug SMM China copper anode operating rate fell to 42.81% MoM
[SMM Copper Anode Flash] In August 2026, the operating rate of SMM China copper anode enterprises was 42.81%, down 1.85 percentage points MoM. By raw material, the operating rate of primary copper anode enterprises rose 1.54 percentage points MoM to 65.07%; the operating rate of secondary copper anode enterprises fell 3.23 percentage points MoM to 33.72% due to tight supply of tax-inclusive copper scrap. (Non-captive copper anode only)
25 mins ago