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SMM Morning Comments (May 17)

Data Analysis 09:46AM May 17, 2018 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, May 17 (SMM) –

Copper: LME copper stood around the 40-day moving average overnight with strong upward momentum. Overnight, the SHFE 1807 contract touched the five-day moving average above, with resistance. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,830-6,880/mt and the SHFE 1807 contract at 50,900-51,400 yuan/mt during the day. As prices of futures rose, spot discounts are likely to stand between 130-80 yuan/mt, with active transactions for high-quality copper.

Aluminium: LME aluminium dipped to a low of $2,302/mt during the European trading session last night, but closed slightly higher at $2,311.5/mt. It is likely to trade rangebound at $2,280-2,320/mt today. The SHFE 1807 contract also inched up overnight with support from longs. Investors will take cues from the US-Sino trade conflict and transactions in the zinc spot market in the short term. The contract is expected to trade at 14,750-14,950 yuan/mt today with spot discounts at 100-60 yuan/mt. 

Zinc: LME zinc traded robustly overnight with guidance from its SHFE counterpart. It opened above the five-day moving average with pressure above at $3,100/mt. We see it trading at $3,060-3,110/mt today. The SHFE 1807 contract strengthened last night as overall positions fell. It is likely to trade at 23,500-24,000 yuan/mt today. 

Nickel: LME nickel consolidated around the daily moving average overnight. The SHFE 1807 contract fell and traded around the daily moving average after hitting a high of 108,130 yuan/mt overnight. We expect LME nickel to trade weakly rangebound today and the SHFE 1807 contract to trade at 106,900-108,900 yuan/mt with spot prices at 106,400-108,400 yuan/mt.

Tin: LME tin traded under pressure overnight with slightly lower trading levels. The SHFE 1809 contract opened lower and traded rangebound overnight. Its trading level edged down towards the 145,000 yuan/mt level at one point. We expect the contract to remain rangebound under pressure and test support at the 145,000 yuan/mt level today.

Lead: LME lead edged down overnight due to a stronger US dollar and an increase of 600 mt in LME lead inventory. It is expected to hover around the five-day moving average in the short term. The SHFE 1806 contract tested highs but stopped climbing at 19,635 yuan/mt. We see it trading rangebound today with much pressure above. The dominant contract is expected to move to 1807 in the near term.

 


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Key Words:  copper   aluminium   nickel   zinc   lead   tin