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Macro Roundup (May 17)

Price Review & Forecast 09:15AM May 17, 2018 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, May 17 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

The US dollar surged to a high of 93.63 last night on the market's higher expectations of interest rate hikes.  Weak eurozone data released last night also drove the US dollar. Base metals saw mixed trading as LME lead, tin, and nickel inched down while the rest went up slightly. Buoyed by robust data of China's real estate overnight, SHFE base metals, except tin, rose across the board.

The eurozone final consumer prices index (CPI) in April gained 1.2% from a year ago, down from the preliminary 1.3%.
 
The US housing starts in April stood at 1.29 million units, down from the expected 1.31 million units.The month on month grow in April reached -3.7%, compared with the expected -0.7%. This figure in March was 3.6%, revised from 1.9%.

Building permits in the US for April was 1.352 million units. The month on month decline in April also fell slower than expectations to stand at -1.8%.

he month on month decline in April went slower from the expected -2.1% to stand at -1.8%.

 
The drop in US housing start and building permits in April indicate that the housing market was affected by shortages of skilled labour and land. Housing shortages in the market has exacerbated since April 2017, when the US imposed a countervailing duty on imported Canadian coniferous timber. 

The US industrial production in April expanded 0.7% from March, higher form the expected 0.6%. However, the estimates for manufacturing and overall industrial production grew slower than expected in prior months, and cast a shadow on the economic outlook.

Inventories of US crude oil during the week ended May 11 shrank 1.4 million barrels, compared with the estimated -2 million barrels, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The previous value stood at -2.2 million barrels. Gasoline inventories also decreased 3.79 million barrels, and refined oil inventories dropped 92,000 barrels. 

The decrease in crude oil inventories is viewed positively, encouraging purchases and driving up prices. This followed declines in prices of futures for WTI crude oil and RBOB gasoline futures, as the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported an unexpected addition of 4.854 million barrels of US crude oil inventories for the week ending May 11.

Day ahead

The US weekly unemployment claim is the key factor to watch today. 

The US dollar is likely to strengthen further and base metals are expected to see mixed trading with slower gains today. 

 


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Key Words:  macroeconomic news