HONG KONG, May 16 (SMM) – Global aluminium market is set to be in a surplus in 2019 and 2020 but will return to a deficit in 2021 and 2022, according to Lynn Zhao, analyst at Macquarie Bank.
The surplus will come from China’s continuous build-up of capacity, she told delegates at a seminar held by the investment bank on Wednesday May 16 in Hong Kong during LME Asia Week.
She added that China’s winter cuts this year will also see limited impact on the country’s aluminium supply.
While cost support for aluminium prices is set to stay firm in the short term on high alumina, bauxite and energy prices, Zhao expects cost to come down in the longer term.
For nickel, use of the metal in batteries is expected to “grow massively” beyond 2020, but she sees no shortage of nickel for batteries over this year and next year.
The biggest risk for the market this year lies in the increase of nickel ore exports from Indonesia, Zhao added.
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