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Macro Roundup (May 15)

Price Review & Forecast 09:03AM May 15, 2018 Source:SMM

SHANGHAI, May 15 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night
The US dollar index covered lost ground to stand at 92.67 overnight. Base metals saw mixed trading last night. LME nickel surged 3.1%, alunimium gained 1.82% and lead rose over 1% on declining inventory and tight supply. Copper edged down, as LME copper inventories increased nearly 9,000 mt on Monday, and tin went down slightly. SHFE nickel rose in line with its LME counterpart and gained nearly 2%. Aluminium and tin inched up, while other SHFE base metals went down slightly.

The US dollar is set to face pressure from Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester's remarks on Monday that the US Federal Reserve should continue its gradual approach to raising interest rates. She believed so as inflation has not reached the US central bank's 2% goal in a sustained way, she said.

"In my view, the medium-run outlook supports the continued gradual removal of policy accommodation; it seems the best strategy for balancing the risks to both of our policy goals and avoiding a build-up of financial stability risks," she said in prepared remarks for a speech in Paris. Her views are consistent with the Fed's policy statement earlier this month. 

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil output averaged 31.93 million barrels per day (mb/d) in April, up 12,000 b/d from the previous month, according to OPEC's monthly oil market report for May. In 2018, global demand for crude oil is forecast to increase 1.65 mb/d. Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to rise at a rate of 1.72 mb/d in 2018. Following a contraction in 2016, "non-OPEC oil supply has seen a recovery in 2017 and 2018... This has been on the back of improving oil market conditions and rising oil prices", the report said.

Day ahead
Key factors to watch today include China's economic data in April, the eurozone ZEW economic sentiment index in May, first quarter gross domestic product (GDP), and the US retail sales data in April.

The US dollar is expected to remain trading rangebound during the day and base metals are likely to see mixed trading.

 


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