SMM Evening Comments (May 11)

Published: May 11, 2018 18:46

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SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, May 11 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals futures saw mixed trading on Friday May 11. SHFE lead led the gains with a rise of over 1%. Copper grew nearly 0.7%, and aluminium inched up. Zinc, nickel, and tin went down slightly.

The ferrous complex strengthened across the board with more gains in the afternoon. Coke rose nearly 3.2% from Thursday, iron ore gained almost 3%, while rebar, hot-rolled coil, and coking coal went up over 2%.

Copper: The SHFE 1807 contract traded below the daily moving average for the most part during the day with pressure at the 60-day moving average. It lacked upward momentum after hitting a high of 51,530 yuan/mt in the morning. We see it testing support at 51,400 yuan/mt tonight. Investors would take guidance from LME copper prices tonight.

Aluminium: Pressure from shorts saw the SHFE 1807 contract fall below the five-day moving average and close at 14,670 yuan/mt. Open interest of SHFE aluminium decreased 12,238 lots to 733,390 lots on Friday, hitting a record low since August 2017. We expect aluminium prices to hover at current levels in the short term.

Zinc: The SHFE zinc 1807 contract mostly hovered at a narrow range during the day, while zinc social inventory in Shanghai, Guangdong, and Tianjin saw steady declines. However, most investors are likely to take a watch-and-wait stance in the short term. We expect the contract to remain rangebound tonight.

Nickel: Shorts pushed the SHFE 1807 contract to a low of 103,650 yuan/mt in the afternoon as it faced pressure from several moving averages with the KDJ indicator expanding downwards. We see it consolidate at current levels tonight. Investors would look out for cues from the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index for May.

Tin: The SHFE 1809 contract traded around 145,430 yuan/mt during the day but closed lower under pressure. Downward room remains in the short term with support at 145,000 yuan/mt. The next support level is seen at 143,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: The SHFE 1806 contract closed higher after hovering in a range of 120 yuan/mt around the daily moving average. However, signs of longs closing out their positions would keep investors cautious tonight.

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copper aluminium nickel zinc lead tin

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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