Metals News
SMM Morning Comments (Apr 26)
price review forecast
Apr 26,2018

SHANGHAI, Apr 26 (SMM) –

Copper: The copper market saw rangebound trading overnight. LME copper stood above all the moving averages with support from the five- and 10-day moving averages. SHFE copper’s trading level slightly rose to between the five- and 60-day moving averages with the 10-day moving average expanding upwards to adhere to the 40-day moving average. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,070-7,020/mt today with SHFE 1806 contract at 51,600-52,100 yuan/mt. Spot premiums are seen at 240-300 yuan/mt today.

Aluminium: As both longs and shorts were cautious, aluminium futures consolidated overnight. The SHFE 1806 contract initially fell to a low of 14,355 yuan/mt as shorts entered the market and imposed pressure. It then regained some losses with support at the 60- and 20-day moving averages as shorts took their profits and exited the market. We expect it to continue to test of the support and trade at 14,300-14,500 yuan/mt today. Spot premiums are seen at 30-70 yuan/mt. We see LME aluminium to remain rangebound today with a trading range at $2,185-2,275/mt.

Zinc: As LME inventories jumped, LME zinc lost half of the gains it registered last week amid bearish sentiment overnight. We expect it to trade at $3,120-3,170/mt today. SHFE zinc also fell overnight but performed firmer than its LME counterpart. Despite the bearish sentiment, SHFE zinc is likely to return to the 24,000 yuan/mt level with longs adding their positions bit by bit. We expect it to trade at 23,750-24,200 yuan/mt today. The 0# common brands are likely to trade at premiums of 190-220 yuan/mt against the 1805 contract, with Shuangyan at premiums of 200-240 yuan/mt.

Nickel: LME inventories continue to decline but China’s stainless steel prices remain under pressure. LME nickel traded rangebound overnight and is expected to continue such pattern at high levels today. The SHFE 1807 contract initially rose to a high of 103,970 yuan/mt and then rebounded from a low of 102,840 yuan/mt overnight. We expect it to trade at 102,500-104,400 yuan/mt today with spot prices at 102,000-104,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: LME lead fell from a high of $2,340.5/mt and lost support of $2,300/mt as LME zinc inventory surged 15.5% overnight. It is likely to test support at $2,300/mt with pressure from all moving averages today. The SHFE 1806 contract also dipped as its LME counterpart weakened. It mostly traded below the daily moving average overnight. We see it trading rangebound with downward room today.

Tin: The SHFE 1809 contract hit a high of 147,390 yuan/mt at one point but came off slightly with limited momentum. We expect it to trade at 145,000-148,000 yuan/mt in the short term and at 146,000-147,500 yuan/mt today. Spot prices are seen at 144,000-146,500 yuan/mt today amid thin trading.


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