SMM Evening Comments (Apr 20)

SHANGHAI, Apr 20 (SMM) – The nonferrous metals saw bleak performance today expect for SHFE tin. Nickel led a loss of 3%, aluminium dropped over 2%, copper slid close to 1%, with lead and zinc dipping.

The ferrous complex fell across the board with coking coal leading a loss of over 2%. Coke lost 1.7%, rebar dropped over 1%, iron ore edged down close to 1%, with hot-rolled coil down slightly.

Copper: SHFE copper fell and moved rangebound under the 40-day moving average with support at the five-day moving average. The 10-day moving average expanded upwards and provided some support. We expect it to trade rangebound tonight.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1806 contract mostly traded around the five-day moving average after it lost the gains from the previous day. We expect it to face pressure from shorts if LME aluminium's upward momentum weakens but with support at the 10-day moving average. The contract is likely to trade at 14,550-15,150 yuan/mt next week.

Zinc: SHFE zinc rebounded from a low of 24,210 yuan/mt today while both sides of the market cut their positions. The direction for SHFE zinc was unclear as shorts and longs diverged but more clarity may emerge tonight.

Nickel: SHFE nickel fell and saw a correction as the KDJ indicator expanded downwards with a fund outflow of 477 million yuan. We expect the contract to continue its correction tonight. 

Tin: Only tin closed higher today among its SHFE peers with rangebound trading. With support from fundamentals, we see resistance at 150,000 yuan/mt and support at 146,000 yuan/mt.

Lead: The SHFE 1806 lead contract mostly hovered above the day moving averages within a range narrower than 100 yuan/mt. Following the lead of LME lead, the SHFE contract rose and closed at 18,325 yuan/mt, lower from the previous day. We see it trading rangebound with support at the five-day moving average tonight. Investors would watch out for the drag from nickel and aluminium price drop. 

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