Macro Roundup (Apr 13)

SHANGHAI, Apr 13 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

Driven by US President Donald Trump's tempered remarks on Syria, the US dollar index rebounded to 89.7, up 0.28%, while most base metals closed lower. LME zinc tumbled 4% and SHFE zinc slipped 2% under pressure from market talk that China's State Reserve Bureau (SRB) was selling zinc stockpiles. However, both LME and SHFE aluminium gained over 1% on worries of supply shortages due to the US sanctions on Rusal.

The US import prices index in March remained unchanged from February, below the expected 0.1% and the previous 0.3% after revision. The figure rose 3.6% from a year earlier, below the expected 3.8% and the previous 3.4% after revision. The import prices index in March, excluding gasoline, increased 0.1% month on month, below the expected 0.2% and the previous 0.4% after revision.

The US initial claims for unemployment benefits over the week that ended on April 7 fell to 233,000. The figure remained below the 300,000 level, indicating strength in the labour market despite a sharp slowdown in job growth in March. As the labour market edges to a level considered to be full employment, the unemployment rate is likely to hit the Federal Reserve's target of 3.8% within this year.

Day ahead

China’s trade balance data in March is the key factor to watch today.

The US dollar will remain weak in the short term due to geopolitical risk and a potential trade war, although tension in the Middle East eased overnight.

Base metals are expected to be guided by the macroeconomy and fundamental factors in the short term.

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