SMM Morning Comments (Apr 10)

Published: Apr 10, 2018 09:38

Save

SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, Apr 10 (SMM) –

Copper: With upward room and firm support, LME copper broke the 20-day moving average while SHFE copper traded rangebound between the five- and 20- day moving averages. We see upbeat momentum in copper prices in the mid and long term but see pressure in the short term given high global inventories. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,800-6,850/mt today and SHFE copper to trade at 50,400-50,900 yuan/mt. In the physical market, spot premiums are seen wider at 60-100 yuan/mt as cargo holders are keen to offer high.

Aluminium: We expect LME aluminium to stay rangebound between the 40- and 60-day moving averages with a trading range at $2,110-2,150/mt given the simmering US sanctions on Rusal. We see firm upward momentum for SHFE aluminium amid the strong performance of its LME counterpart if destocking in China continues. But China’s aluminium still faces strong pressure from fundamentals in the medium term. We expect SHFE aluminium to trade at 14,280-14,480 yuan/mt today, with spot discounts at 80-40 yuan/mt.

Zinc: LME zinc registered a tall upper shadow and struggled at the five-, 10- and 20-day moving averages. We expect it to consolidate between $3,200-3,250/mt today. SHFE zinc climbed up from lows and closed slightly higher overnight. We expect it to consolidate between 24,150-24,650 yuan/mt today given bearish sentiments. The 0# common brand will trade at a premium of 20-50 yuan/mt and Shuangyan brand will trade at a premium of 40-60 yuan/mt.

Nickel: China’s stainless steel prices remain under pressure, while nickel inventories continue to edge lower. We expect LME nickel to be strongly rangebound with the SHFE nickel 1807 contract trading at 99,500-101,000 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 98,700-100,300 yuan/mt.

Lead: LME lead traded rangebound and closed at $2382.5/mt last night, at one point hitting the lowest point of $2,371/mt. It is expected to reach $2,400/mt today and investors should pay attention to breaking news that might affect the market. SHFE lead lost the support of 20-day moving average and closed at 18,480 yuan/mt, down 70 yuan/mt. With significant resistance, SHFE lead is likely to trade in a weak rangebound today.

Tin: Base metals gained as the trade war eased and as the dollar performed weakly. Due to resistance, LME tin is expected to trade rangebound and test pressure at $21,300/mt today. Driven by its LME counterpart, SHFE tin went up at night and we see it trading rangebound at 144,000-146,000 yuan/mt today.

For editorial queries, please contact Daisy Tseng at daisy@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

copper aluminium nickel zinc lead tin

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or to learn more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

22 hours ago

"Premier Li Qiang Leads State Council Meeting on Enhancing Effective Investment, Boosting Economic Growth"

Premier Li Qiang presided over an executive meeting of the State Council to study policy measures for promoting effective investment. The meeting noted that promoting effective investment plays an important role in stabilizing economic growth and strengthening momentum for development. It is necessary to innovate and improve policy measures, and intensify efforts to enhance the efficiency of utilizing funds such as central budget investments, ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, local government special bonds, and new-type policy-based financial instruments. In conjunction with formulating and implementing the 15th Five-Year Plan

22 hours ago

"Guided by Xi Jinping Thought, Implement 20th CPC Congress Spirit, Apply New Development Philosophy...

Guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, we will thoroughly implement the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and the plenary sessions of the Party’s 20th Central Committee, fully and faithfully apply the new development philosophy, strengthen top-level design, build computing power interconnection nodes oriented toward national hub periods, major strategic regions, and key industries, establish a system of computing power interconnection nodes, improve the efficiency and service level of public computing power resources, and promote high-quality development of computing power.

22 hours ago

Indirect Iran-US Nuclear Talks in Muscat Show Progress, Omani FM Mediates Tense but Efficient Discussions

After intensive indirect consultations, the new round of nuclear talks between Iran and the US in Muscat, the capital of Oman, has achieved phased progress. It is reported that during this round of talks, the Iranian and US delegations did not meet directly. Instead, Omani Foreign Minister Badr acted as an intermediary, conveying a series of core proposals, strategic concerns, and policy positions to the other side. The atmosphere at the talks was tense yet efficient. According to preliminary on-site assessments, although both sides continue to negotiate over specific terms, they have reached a consensus on the key objective of "continuing dialogue."

22 hours ago