SMM Evening Comments (Mar 30)

Published: Mar 30, 2018 18:11

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SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Mar 30 (SMM) – Nonferrous metals futures rose for the most part except for aluminium during the afternoon trading session on Friday March 30. SHFE tin was up over 2.6%, nickel was up above 2%, copper gained over 1%, lead grew nearly 1%, and zinc inched up some 0.6%.

Ferrous metals rose across the board with coking coal up close to 6%. Rebar gained over 4%, hot-rolled coil and coke went up over 3%, and iron ore up 1.6%.

Copper: Investors with short positions cut much of their exposure today, propelling SHFE copper prices up. However, pressure remains at the 10-day moving average while we see support at the 49,800 yuan/mt level.

Aluminium: The SHFE 1805 contract opened at 13,700 yuan/mt in the morning and tumbled to a low of 13,630 yuan/mt before it rebounded and closed at 13,770 yuan/mt. Shorts closed out their positions to averse risks following the strong performance of the ferrous complex. We see limited downward momentum for SHFE aluminium given the arbitrage trading and stable prices of coal and alumina. We expect the contract to trade at 13,600-13,950 yuan/mt next week.

Zinc: SHFE zinc dropped at the start of the day as shorts entered the market. The rebound in the afternoon also showed lacklustre momentum as pressure was seen at the 20-day moving average. However, continuous declines in inventories across the three major markets in China will give some support to zinc prices.

Nickel: SHFE nickel touched a high at 99,880 yuan/mt today with longs adding to their bets. However, we see pressure at the 100,000 yuan/mt level.

Lead: SHFE lead prices went up and registered a fourth consecutive gain. We expect it to test resistance at 19,000 yuan/mt tonight. Investors would also watch out for decreasing long positions at high levels.

Tin: SHFE tin rose more in the afternoon than in the morning trading session today, closing at a high of 144,680 yuan/mt. As smelters held up offers and cut output, tin price is likely to gain further in the short term with a target at 147,000 yuan/mt.

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