SMM Morning Comments (Mar 29)

Published: Mar 29, 2018 09:31 (GMT+8)

Save

SMM Morning Comments

SHANGHAI, Mar 29 (SMM) –

Copper: A stronger US dollar and falling oil prices are likely to keep copper prices under pressure. We expect LME copper to trade at $6,640-6,690/mt today and the SHFE 1805 contract at 49,400-49,900 yuan/mt. Spot discounts are expected at 200-140 yuan/mt.

Aluminium: A total of 18,000 lots of short positions were added to SHFE aluminium at the start of the trading session last night but prices did not fall as much as expected. However, bearish sentiments remained and a narrowed spread indicates a potential shift from contango to backwardation. We expect the main SHFE aluminium contract to trade at 13,640-13,820 yuan/mt today and spot discounts at 130-90 yuan/mt. LME aluminum is expected to trade at $2,020-2,043/mt.

Zinc: The five- and 10-day moving averages gave some support to SHFE zinc last night though investors added to their short bets aggressively. We see pressure at the 20-day moving average, or 25,000 yuan/mt, and expect the contract to trade at 24,600-25,100 yuan/mt today. LME zinc also saw support at the 20-day moving average and is expected to trade at $3,250-3,300/mt today.

Nickel: Market sentiment was supported last night with the release of favourable US economic data. LME nickel stood above the five-day moving average but we see pressure remaining. The SHFE 1805 contract is expected to trade at 96,000-98,000 yuan/mt today with spot prices at 95,500-97,500 yuan/mt.

Lead: SHFE lead registered gains with the support of its LME counterpart. We expect it to test and hit 18,700 yuan/mt today but upward momentum may not be sustainable.

Tin: With the US dollar index edging back up to 90, we expect LME tin to be rangebound with support at $20,600/mt. SHFE tin is set to test the support at 140,000 yuan/mt in the short term but we see limited downward room. Smelters in China have held up their prices as tight supplies of raw materials are not expected to ease in April.

For editorial queries, please contact Daisy Tseng at daisy@smm.cn
For more information on how to access our research reports, please email service.en@smm.cn

copper aluminium lead zinc tin nickel

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM's internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

For any inquiries or for more information, please contact: lemonzhao@smm.cn

For more information on how to access our research reports, please contact:service.en@smm.cn

Related News

18 hours ago

KGHM and South32 launch US$725m Sierra Gorda expansion, lifting copper capacity 26%

KGHM and South32 have broken ground on a fourth grinding line at the Sierra Gorda copper-molybdenum mine in Chile's Atacama region. The US$725 million expansion runs for three years from January 2027, with completion by late 2029 and full output in H2 2030. Ore processing capacity rises 26%, from 131,000 tonnes per day to 165,000 tpd. Annual copper output is projected to climb from 165,000 tonnes in 2025 to 195,000 tonnes, with 6,000 tonnes of molybdenum, 58,000 ounces of gold and 1.7 million ounces of silver as by-products. The project creates over 900 direct jobs and is funded from operating cash flow and debt. Unit operating costs are expected to fall about 10%.

18 hours ago

19 hours ago

Emerita Extends Final Review of Iberian Belt West PFS, Release Expected in Coming Weeks

Emerita Resources has provided an update on the Preliminary Feasibility Study (PFS) for its Iberian Belt West polymetallic project in Spain, saying the study is well advanced but remains under final technical review. The company said the review process has been expanded to include additional technical and quality-assurance oversight before publication. As a result, Emerita now expects the PFS to be released in the coming weeks rather than within the previously indicated timeframe. Iberian Belt West hosts copper, zinc, lead, gold and silver mineralization and is one of Emerita’s principal development-stage assets in Spain. The PFS is expected to provide updated detail on the proposed mine plan, processing configuration, capital requirements, operating costs and project economics. Emerita said the additional review work is intended to ensure consistency and completeness across the technical disciplines contributing to the study before it is finalized. The company did not announce a revised specific publication date, and no new production, capital or economic figures were disclosed in the latest update. The extended review delays the next major technical milestone for Iberian Belt West, but the company continues to indicate that the PFS is nearing completion. For the copper market, the significance of the study will depend on the production profile and project economics ultimately disclosed, particularly the contribution of copper relative to the project’s other payable metals. Attention will therefore remain on the timing of the PFS release and whether the final study materially changes the project’s development outlook.

19 hours ago

Cascadia Intersects 75.55 m at 1.19% Cu at Carmacks Copper-Gold Project

Cascadia Minerals has reported additional drill results from its 2026 exploration programme at the Carmacks copper-gold project in Yukon, Canada, with new step-out drilling extending mineralization at Zone 2000S beyond the boundaries of the existing Mineral Resource. Drill hole CD-26-058 returned 75.55 metres grading 1.19% copper, 0.97 g/t gold, 10.4 g/t silver and 335 ppm molybdenum, equivalent to 2.18% copper-equivalent. The interval included 48.66 metres grading 1.61% copper, 1.39 g/t gold, 15.1 g/t silver and 475 ppm molybdenum, equivalent to 3.03% CuEq. Within the same hole, a higher-grade interval of 14.50 metres returned 2.30% copper, 2.68 g/t gold, 29.5 g/t silver and 1,015 ppm molybdenum, equivalent to 5.08% CuEq. A second hole, CD-26-059, intersected 93.99 metres grading 0.96% copper, 0.70 g/t gold, 4.6 g/t silver and 919 ppm molybdenum, equivalent to 1.94% CuEq. This included 63.97 metres at 1.26% copper, 0.96 g/t gold, 6.3 g/t silver and 1,049 ppm molybdenum, equivalent to 2.52% CuEq. Cascadia said the latest results continue to expand mineralization at Zone 2000S beyond the limits of the current Mineral Resource and highlight the higher-grade nature of the extension. The reported drill intervals represent drilled thicknesses, with true widths estimated at approximately 60–70%. The latest step-out results indicate that copper-gold mineralization at Zone 2000S extends beyond the boundaries of the current Carmacks Mineral Resource. The broad intervals and higher-grade internal zones could support future resource expansion if additional drilling confirms continuity. However, the new intersections have not yet been incorporated into an updated Mineral Resource Estimate, meaning their ultimate impact on project scale and mine planning remains to be determined.

19 hours ago