Data: China's base metals import, export in Feb

The Shanghai spot copper market is expected to remain weakly structured. A slightly widened nearby contango is incentivizing suppliers to move spot material into warehouse warrants, limiting liquidity tightness. Concurrently, smelters' delivery stockpiling and suppliers' strong price-holding sentiment are restricting available spot supply, supporting the prevailing discount. With the holiday approaching, downstream procurement has largely slowed, diminishing demand-side support for prices. Amid high prices, tight supply, firm holder sentiment, and spread pressure, spot discounts are forecast to narrow slightly further tomorrow.

The following table shows the ferrous and nonferrous metals movement on the SHFE and DCE on 04 Feb , 2026

[SMM Shanghai Spot Copper] The Shanghai spot copper market is expected to continue exhibiting a weak supply-demand pattern. The contango spread between nearby months widened slightly, further encouraging suppliers to convert some spot cargo into warrants, limiting further tightening of spot liquidity. Some smelters have opted for stockpiling for delivery, coupled with suppliers' evident reluctance to sell and firm price-holding sentiment, resulting in limited tradable spot cargo in the market, which will support the spot discount structure. As the holiday approaches, downstream enterprises have generally slowed their procurement pace, with most having entered the final stage of pre-holiday stockpiling or production adjustment phases. Actual transaction activity is suppressed, and demand-side factors are unlikely to provide sustained boosts to prices. Amid intertwined factors such as high copper prices, tight supply, firm price-holding by suppliers, and pressure from the futures spread, spot discounts are expected to narrow slightly further tomorrow.