SHANGHAI, Mar 23 (SMM) – This is a roundup of global macroeconomic news last night and what is expected today.

Last night

As trade tensions between the US and China intensified overnight, the US dollar fell and hovered at 89.7.

Most base metals closed lower given the simmering trade war. SHFE nickel slipped over 2%, copper dropped 1%. LME nickel slumped 2.6%, and copper, lead, zinc edged down over 1%, while tin inched up. LME copper tumbled to a three-month low.

Germany’s preliminary manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) recorded a new low in eight months and stood at 58.4, below the expected 59.8. The country’s composite PMI remained stable given bullish sentiment in manufacturing and services sectors eased.

The eurozone’s preliminary manufacturing, services, and composite PMI in March failed to meet expectations and stood at 56.6, 55, 55.3, respectively. Business activity grew at the slowest pace in 14 months.

Germany’s IFO business climate index slipped to 114.7 in March from 115.4 in February. The institute said that growing trade protectionism hampered enterprises’ confidence. It maintained its forecast of an increase in Germany’s GDP and added that export expectations have fallen to their lowest levels in more than a year.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits in the US increased slightly to 229,000 for the week ended March 17 even as the labour market tightened.

The US’ home price index in January went up 0.8% month on month, and up 7.3% year on year, according to data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Markit preliminary manufacturing PMI in March hit a new high since March 2015 and stood at 55.7, suggesting that the US economy expanded steadily.

Day ahead

The US' order of durable goods for February is the key factor to watch today.

The US dollar edged down after it rose and stayed rangebound at 89.6 overnight. We expect the trend to continue and for it to take more cues from the China-US trade dispute.

Base metals fell across the board with pressure from the growing trade dispute overnight. We see prices remaining rangebound with downward room.

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