SHANGHAI, Mar 21 (SMM) –

Copper: Copper prices remained under pressure given high inventories and worries of a potential trade war. We expect LME copper to fall to the $6,700/mt level in the short term but with upward momentum in the mid and long term. We see it trading at $6,730-6,790/mt today, with the SHFE 1805contract trading at 50,500-51,000 yuan/mt. In the physical market, downstream consumers may increase purchases as prices of futures decline. Spot discounts are seen at 200-150 yuan/mt today.

Aluminium: LME aluminium continued to consolidate and is expected to trade at $2,070-2,095/mt today. The Federal Reserve’s decision on an interest rate hike will give more guidance to the market. We expect SHFE aluminium to trade at 13,900-14,050 yuan/mt today, with spot discounts at 160-120 yuan/mt.

Zinc: A stronger US dollar index and pressure from shorts drove LME zinc below $3,200/mt overnight. It is seen trading at $3,185-3,235/mt today. Overnight, SHFE zinc fell to a record low this year, at 24,325 yuan/mt with resistance from short bets. Given accumulated inventories and sluggish consumption, we see it testing support at 24500 yuan/mt and trading at 24,300-24,750 yuan/mt today.

Nickel: As downstream demand remained sluggish and the US dollar is likely to gain further, nickel prices faced downward pressure and fell below the 40-day moving average. We expect LME nickel to remain rangebound today and the SHFE 1805 contract to trade at 100,800-102,500 yuan/mt. Spot prices are seen at 100,300-102,000 yuan/mt.

Tin: As the US dollar strengthen and rose back to 90, LME tin edged down last night and hit a low of $20,670/mt. As the US dollar is likely to be buoyed by a higher interest rate, we expect LME tin to drop further and test support at $20,600/mt in the short term. Overnight, SHFE tin mostly traded rangebound below the five-day moving average. It also faces downward pressure in the short term. We expect it to test support at 143,000 yuan/mt, and trade at 143,500-144,500 yuan/mt today.

Lead: LME lead touched a low of $2,320/mt, but gained some lost ground to close at $2350.5/mt. We see prices declining further and testing support at $2310/mt today. SHFE lead tried to rise above 18,250 yuan/mt but faced resistance overnight. We see it trading rangebound with downward room today.

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