SMM Evening Comments (Mar 14)

Published: Mar 14, 2018 17:58

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SMM Evening Comments

SHANGHAI, Mar 14 (SMM) – Following the release of China’s upbeat economic data, most base metals registered a rise today. SHFE aluminum rose close to 1%, while tin dipped close to 1%. Copper, nickel, zinc inched up.

The ferrous complex rose across the board, as coking coal led with a gain of 2.7%. Iron ore jumped over 2%. Coke and hot-rolled coil went up about 1%, while rebar increased by 0.6%.

Copper: As long positions entered the market and investors reduced their short bets, the SHFE 1805 contract touched a high of 52,480 yuan/mt and closed at 52,330 yuan/mt today. Strong performance of China's economy is set to boost prices. The US’ producer price index (PPI) in February will give more guidance to the market tonight.

Aluminium: SHFE aluminium edged down today with resistance from shorts, and touched a low of 13,930 yuan/mt. We see prices continue to face pressure as demand recovers slower than expected. There is limited downward room in the medium term as some plants face operating issues in light of higher costs.

Zinc: SHFE zinc traded rangebound today but with limited upward room given high inventories. We expect it to consolidate with resistance from the 25,300 yuan/mt level tonight.

Nickel: Buoyed by China's strong economic data for January and February, SHFE nickel hit a high of 104,660 yuan/mt and closed at 104,350 yuan/mt. Prices are likely to continue to risp tonight. Investors will take cues from the US' retail sales data and the producer price index (PPI) tonight.

Tin: SHFE tin was the only nonferrous metal to close at a loss. It broke support from allmoving averages. We expect it to test the 14,500 yuan/mt level tonight.

Lead: Bullish sentiments supported the SHFE 1805 contract to reach a high of 18,415 yuan/mt, but it edged down and closed at 18,385 yuan/mt as investors took their profits. SHFE lead rebounded from lows and stood above the five-day moving average. We see it testing the 18,400 yuan/mt level tonight.

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copper aluminium nickel zinc lead tin

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, all other data are processed by SMM based on publicly available information, market communication, and relying on SMM‘s internal database model. They are for reference only and do not constitute decision-making recommendations.

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